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Signals rate hike in June
As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 0.25 per cent at its setting on April 20, 2010. The trend-setting Bank rate, which is set 0.25 percentage points above the overnight lending rate, remains at 0.5 per cent.
With the Bank having dropped its commitment to stay on hold until at least the second half of the year conditional on the outlook for inflation, financial markets now expect the Bank to raise rates at its next at its next fixed announcement date on June 1st.
The Bank raised its forecast for economic growth this year from 2.9 per cent in the January Monetary Policy Report to 3.7 per cent, attributing the more “front-loaded” profile for growth to “stronger near-term global growth” and “very strong housing activity”.
The Bank noted that the economy still faces headwinds from the strength of the Canadian dollar, weak U.S. demand, and “Canada’s relatively poor relative productivity performance”. The mention of productivity could be a signal that the Bank plans to downgrade the potential growth rate of the economy in its new Monetary Policy Report, due out on Thursday, meaning the economy would return to potential faster than previously forecast.
In fact, the Bank did move the goalposts forward as to when it expects the economy to return to full potential, now forecasting the second quarter of 2011. The Bank had previously forecast a return to potential by the third quarter of 2011. This is another signal that rates will have climb sooner in order to fight inflation.
The Bank said core inflation had been somewhat firmer than projected in January, but noted that this was due to temporary factors. The core rate is expected to ease slightly in the second quarter of 2010 and to remain near 2 per cent throughout the rest of the projection period. Total CPI inflation is expected to be slightly higher than 2 per cent over the coming year, before returning to the target in the second half of 2011.
In previous announcements, the Bank had noted that it believed the balance of risks to the outlook to be tilted to the downside. At its last announcement, the Bank judged those risks to be balanced. This announcement removed any mention of the balance of risks, leaving financial markets to draw their own conclusions.
“The April interest rate announcement all but guarantees the Bank will raise rates in June,” said CREA’s Chief Economist Gregory Klump.
As of April 19th, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate stood at 5.85 per cent. This is up 0.4 per cent from one year earlier, and stands 0.46 per cent above where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on March 2, 2010.
Improving credit market conditions have enabled lenders to reintroduce discounts off posted mortgage interest rates. Discounts of about one percentage point can be negotiated, depending on lender-client relationship.
http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm
(CREA 03/02/2010)
Tags: bank of canada, canadian dollar, core inflation, core rate, cpi inflation, economic growth, economy, financial markets, global growth, goalposts, monetary policy report, percentage points, productivity performance, rate hike, relative productivity, second half, second quarter, Signals, target
Posted in 1, interest rates; Bank of Canada; | Comments Off
Homebuyers have more choice heading into the busy spring buying season, with new supply in Canada’s resale housing market setting a record for the month of March. While resale housing demand remains strong, rising numbers of new listings are resulting in a more balanced national resale housing market.
According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), some 97,663 residential properties were listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards in March 2010. This is an increase of 20 per cent from the previous March record set in 2008. A total of 233,402 new listings have come on stream since the beginning of the year, more than in any other first quarter period on record.
“Negotiations still favour sellers during the home buying process in a number of major Canadian housing markets,” said CREA President Georges Pahud. “The rise in new listings means that buyers may shop around more before making an offer.”
Demand remains very strong, but has edged lower compared to the record levels posted at the end of 2009. Seasonally adjusted national home sales totalled 130,072 units in the first three months of 2010. This represents the fourth highest quarterly level on record, down 3.4 per cent from the quarterly peak in the fourth quarter of last year. Sales activity in Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland & Labrador rose to new records in the first quarter. Higher activity in these provinces was offset by a decline in activity in British Columbia (-17.8 per cent) and Alberta (-9.7 per cent).
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales numbered 111,110 units in the first quarter of 2010. This is the third highest level ever for the first quarter period.
A total of 43,621 homes traded hands through Boards’ MLS® Systems on a seasonally adjusted basis in March 2010. This is an increase of 1.4 per cent from February, as further gains in Toronto more than offset a decline in activity in Vancouver. Seasonally adjusted sales scaled new heights in Toronto and Ottawa in March.
Unadjusted national sales activity numbered 49,256 units in March. This marks the second highest level on record for the month of March. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 40.8 per cent, smaller than those of the previous five months. Since a year will soon have elapsed following the recessionary decline and subsequent rebound for the Canadian resale market, year-over-year comparisons are expected to continue shrinking in the months ahead.
The national average price of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems in March was $340,920. This is the second highest national average price on record, just $300 below the peak reached last October. Compared to March 2009, the national average home price was up 17.6 per cent. As with sales activity, the increase was smaller than those recorded over the past five months, and year-over-year gains are expected to become further subdued as the year progresses.
The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 16 per cent on a year-over-year basis in March 2010.
The residential average price in Canada’s major markets climbed 19 per cent year-over-year to $373,835 in March. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price, which rose 17 per cent from levels reported in March 2009.
There were 214,312 homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of March 2010, a decline of nine per cent compared to the elevated levels of one year ago. This is the smallest year-over-year decline in active listings since June 2009.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in March 2010 stood at 4.4 months. While well below where it stood one year ago (6.7 months), and down slightly from March 2008 (five months), months of inventory are higher compared to March from 2004 through 2007. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, months of inventory stood at 4.6 months in March. This was little changed from February, but stands above levels reported in the previous four months.
“The erosion of housing affordability is crimping activity in some of Canada’s priciest markets in the lower mainland of British Columbia,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Higher mortgage interest rates and the rise in new listings may also soon reduce some of the urgency to purchase in Toronto. Sales activity in British Columbia and Ontario is expected to ease over the second half of 2010 once the HST comes into effect, pulling national activity lower. Rising supply and lower activity will take the steam out of the pricing environment following upbeat home sales this spring.”
PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/media_mar10.pdf
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OTTAWA – March 15, 2010 – With rising activity in Toronto offset by lower activity in Vancouver, the number of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards edged lower in February. In recent months, national sales activity has slowed while new listings continue to rise, resulting in a more balanced national resale housing market.
According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association, seasonally adjusted national home sales totalled 42,799 units in February 2010, edging down 1.5 per cent from January. Activity declined mostly in Vancouver, but this was offset by an equally large gain in Toronto. Sales were also down in a number of other British Columbia housing markets. Since there were no significant gains in sales activity elsewhere in Canada, the national figure for sales activity was pulled slightly lower.
“The Olympic Winter Games may have impacted February sales activity in British Columbia, so activity for the province in March will be closely watched,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “Activity is expected to remain elevated in Ontario and British Columbia over the first half of the year, with buyers looking to beat the introduction of the HST and expected interest rate hikes.”
Across the country, actual (not seasonally adjusted) residential sales activity numbered 36,275 units in February, up 44 per cent from the same month last year. New records for February activity were set in Ontario and Quebec. The year-over-year gain in national activity was smaller than those of the previous three months. Since a year will soon have elapsed following the recessionary decline and subsequent rebound for the Canadian resale market, year-over-year comparisons are expected to continue shrinking.
The average price of all homes sold through Boards’ MLS® Systems in February 2010 was $335,655, up 18.2 per cent from one year ago. As with sales activity, this gain was smaller than in the past four months, and year-over-year gains are expected to become further subdued going forward.
The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 15.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in February 2010.
The residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 18.7 per cent year-over-year in February. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price, which rose 14.7 per cent from levels reported in February 2009.
The seasonally adjusted number of new listings on Boards’ MLS® Systems across Canada climbed another 2.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis in February to reach 73,849 units, the highest level since October 2008. Five consecutive monthly increases have lifted new listings 16.3 per cent above where they stood last September, when they had fallen to the lowest level since late 2005. As with sales activity, new listings in February 2010 were up most in Ontario and down most in British Columbia. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of new residential listings was 71,197 in February, up 10.8 per cent from one year ago.
Strong resale housing demand continues to draw down inventories, but supply is shrinking at a decreasing rate because of slightly softer sales activity and an increase in new listings in recent months. There were 188,334 homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of February 2010, a decline of 15.4 per cent compared to levels one year ago. This is the smallest year-over-year decline in active listings since last August.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in February 2010 stood at 5.2 months. This is well below where it stood one year ago (8.8 months), but on par with February 2008 and slightly higher than it was in the month of February in the years 2004 through 2007. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, months of inventory rose nationally for the third consecutive month. There were 4.7 months of inventory in February 2010; up slightly from 4.5 months from the previous month, and 4.3 months in December 2009.
“Housing markets are becoming more balanced,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “There are still a number of major markets where sales negotiations favour the seller due to a shortage of inventory, but supply has begun rising. Further expected supply increases will continue to take the steam out of housing markets as the year progresses.”
http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/media_feb10rpt_e.pdf
PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 96,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations. Further information can be found at www.crea.ca.
For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact:
Alyson Fair
Publicist / Publicitaire
The Canadian Real Estate Association / L’Association canadienne de l’immeuble
Tel: (613) 237-7111 X 2284 Cell: (613)884-1460
afair@crea.ca
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Posted in 1, national resale housing market; The Canadian Real Estate Association | Comments Off
As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 0.25 per cent at its setting on March 2, 2010. The trend-setting Bank rate, which is set 0.25 percentage points above the overnight lending rate, remains at 0.5 per cent.
The Bank acknowledged that economic growth and inflation have recently picked up by more than it previously expected. In its most recent Monetary Policy Report published in January 2010, the Bank predicted that the Canadian economy would grow by 3.3 per cent and that core inflation would be running at 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009. In actuality, the Canadian economy expanded by five per cent on an annualized basis, and the core rate of inflation hit two per cent year-over-year in December 2009.
The Bank recognized that the “ongoing global economic recovery is being driven largely by strong domestic demand growth in many emerging-market economies and supported in advanced economies by exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as extraordinary measures taken to support financial systems.”
However, financial markets will focus attention on the change in language compared to the Bank’s recession-era announcements. In its March 2nd announcement, the Bank indicated that “the main macroeconomic risks to the inflation projection are roughly balanced.” This marks the first time in over a year in which it judges that the risks to inflation were tilted to the downside.
The Bank also restated its commitment to keep its trend-setting overnight lending rate on hold until the second half of 2010, conditional on the outlook for inflation.
“Financial markets, however, will look past the Bank’s conditional commitment and increase bets that the Bank will move to raise rates before then,” said CREA’s Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “This will result in upward pressure on the Canada-U.S. currency exchange rate, thereby making the Bank’s assertion ‘that the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the low absolute level of U.S. demand [will] continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada’ something of a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
“Interest rates will rise, but increases will be small and spread out over time. The Bank expects economic growth to rely on domestic demand once temporary government stimulus spending measures expire. Raising interest rates too soon and by too much runs the risk of choking economic growth,” added Mr. Klump.
As of March 2nd, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate stood at 5.39 per cent. This is down 0.4 per cent from one year earlier, and stands 0.1 per cent below where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on January 19, 2010.
Improving credit market conditions have enabled lenders to reintroduce discounts off posted mortgage interest rates. Discounts of about one percentage point can be negotiated, depending on lender-client relationship.
http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm
Tags: absolute level, activity, actuality, announcement, assertion, attention, bank, bank of canada, basis, benchmark, Canada, canadian dollar, canadian economy, cent, change, chief economist, commitment, conditional commitment, core, core inflation, core rate of inflation, CREA, credit, currency, currency exchange rate, December, demand, Discounts, dollar, downside, economic recovery, economy, emerging market economies, exchange, Financial, financial markets, fiscal stimulus, government, Gregory Klump, growth, half, hold, Improving, increase, inflation, interest, January, language, lending, level, March, market, Monetary, monetary policy report, mortgage, Mr. Klump, outlook, percentage, percentage points, Point, policy, pressure, projection, prophecy, quarter, rate, rate of inflation, recovery, reintroduce, relationship, report, risk, something, spending, spread, stimulus, strength, time, U.S, upward pressure, year
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OTTAWA – February 17th, 2010 – According to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association, the number of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards declined in January 2010 from the previous month.
Seasonally adjusted national home sales dropped 2.8 per cent from near record levels reported in December. Ontario accounted for about half the national decline. Activity was also down in British Columbia, Alberta, and Manitoba, but reached new heights in Quebec.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) residential sales activity in January 2010 was up 58 per cent from year ago levels, when national home sales activity reached the lowest level in a decade. Because activity began recovering in February last year, large year-over-year gains are expected to shrink over upcoming months.
The average price of all homes sold through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards in January 2010 was $328,537, up 19.6 per cent from one year ago. In January 2009, the average residential sale price fell to the lowest level in almost three years. Year-over-year average price gains are being stretched by weakness one year ago, and are expected to shrink beginning next month.
The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 14.9 per cent year-over-year basis in January 2010.
The residential average price in Canada’s major markets also climbed 19.6 per cent year-over-year in January. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price, which rose 13.1 from January 2009.
Across Canada, the seasonally adjusted number of new listings on Boards’ MLS® Systems edged up three tenths of one percent on a month-over-month basis in January to reach the highest level since November 2008. New listings rose in British Columbia, Alberta and Newfoundland, offsetting declines in other provinces. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of new residential listings was up 3.4 per cent from one year ago.
“The resale housing market is becoming more balanced in a number of provinces, including my own province of Saskatchewan,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “A more balanced market is likely to result in smaller price increases going forward, with buyers in less of a rush due to an increase in supply. That said, market conditions vary across Canada, so buyers and sellers are wise to consult with a REALTOR® since they know current conditions in your local market.”
Strong demand for resale homes continues to draw down supply. There were 170,199 homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of January 2010, a decline of 18 per cent from levels reported for the same month in 2009. Nationally, there were 4.4 months of inventory in January 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is up slightly from 4.2 months in December.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in January 2010 stood at 6.6 months. This is well below where it stood one year ago (12.8 months), but slightly higher than it was in the month of January in the years 2004 through 2008. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
“January results suggest that the national resale housing market may be past the recent peak,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “One car doesn’t make a parade, so a few more months of results showing a cooling trend will be required before talk of a Canadian housing bubble begins to fade. It could take until the second half of the year before a cooling trend becomes evident, since home buying activity may continue to be accelerated in the first half of 2010 by expected interest rate increases, and by the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia on Canada Day.”
http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/media_jan10rpt_e.pdf
(CREA 02/17/10)
Tags: british columbia alberta, Canada, canadian real estate, decade, Manitoba, multiple listing service, national counterpart, national decline, Ottawa, price trend, proportions, provincial sales, Quebec, real estate association, real estate boards, residential sales, rose 13, statistics, stock, tenths
Posted in 1, Canadian Real Estate Association; home sales activity; residential average price; | Comments Off
OTTAWA – February 16th – Following this morning’s announcement by the Federal government, The Canadian Real Estate Association is of the view that the Canadian resale housing market is healthy, and does not require regulatory changes beyond those announced today.
“Banks and governments should be cautious interpreting recent statistics, since comparisons are being distorted by recessionary activity a year ago and the subsequent rebound,” says Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Current trends reflect the release of pent up demand when buyers moved to the sidelines during the recession. Additionally, the HST in Ontario and British Columbia and coming interest rate increases will likely moderate activity and price gains beginning in the second half of 2010.”
CREA’s analysis of housing activity on the Multiple Listing Service® Systems of real estate boards across Canada has emphasized that a number of temporary factors have been skewing average price comparisons. Its most recent forecast indicates that national activity and average price will decline in 2011.
About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
Registrants in any province who become members of organized real estate have an obligation to act in accordance with the REALTOR(R) Code. This Code outlines the accepted standard of conduct for all real estate practitioners who are members of a real estate Board or a Provincial Association.
CREA owns the MLS(R) and REALTOR(R) trademarks, which signify a high standard of service and identify members of CREA.
For further information or to request an interview, please contact:
Alyson Fair, Publicist
The Canadian Real Estate Association
P: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E: afair@crea.ca
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OTTAWA, Ontario – February 8, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) learned today that the Competition Bureau filed a Notice of Application with the Competition Tribunal against CREA.
“CREA views the Commissioner’s decision as surprising and disappointing,” said Dale Ripplinger, President of CREA. “We do not agree with the Bureau’s position that certain CREA rules are anti-competitive, either as a matter of fact or as a matter of law. CREA’s rules allow for innovative business models and provide a broad range of choice for consumers.”
In good faith, CREA engaged in settlement negotiations with the Competition Bureau for several months in an effort to arrive at a consensual resolution. Unfortunately, the parties were unable to reach an agreement. This is very disappointing, since CREA has consistently indicated – right from the outset – that it has always been prepared to work with the Competition Bureau to revise its rules to clarify the way the rules operate.
Last week, CREA advised the Commissioner of Competition that CREA had made the business decision to move forward with rule changes to address the issues raised by the Bureau, whether or not a settlement with the Bureau could be reached.
“In making these clarifications on a proactive basis, CREA believes that it is fully addressing the Competition Bureau’s concerns, while ensuring the accuracy and quality of MLS® information that Canadians have come to trust and REALTOR® compliance with a code of ethics” said Ripplinger.
The Commissioner’s press release states that CREA’s rules restrict consumer choice and prevent innovative business models. That is simply false. CREA is disappointed that the Bureau would make this statement in view of the months of discussions about CREA’s rules and CREA’s consistent position that its rules are not intended to and do not restrict any business models.
The real estate industry in Canada is highly competitive and thrives on small businesses with independent agents, brokers and franchises conducting a wide variety of transactions every day. CREA currently has more than 98,000 members operating independently across the country to compete for consumer business, offering a wide array of services and pricing structures.
“CREA’s interest and that of its members is to ensure consumers have choice, that they are protected during one of the most significant transactions they will undertake, and that the integrity of the MLS® system is preserved for the benefit of REALTORS® and the Canadian public” added Ripplinger.
About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
For more information, please contact:
Alyson Fair
613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
Email: afair@crea.ca
Ray Sapiano
613-237-7111 or 613-290-8902
Email: rsapiano@crea.ca
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OTTAWA – February 8, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association has revised its forecast for home sales via the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate boards in 2010, and extended the forecast to 2011.
With Canadian economic growth rebounding from the recession, the unusually severe decline in sales activity in early 2009 is not expected to recur in 2010. Annual activity in 2010 is forecast to be well above the previous year’s level as a result.
CREA forecasts national activity will reach 527,300 units in 2010, up 13.3 per cent from 2009. This would represent a new annual record, standing 1.2 per cent above the previous peak in 2007. Low interest rates are expected to boost housing demand in the first half of the year, resulting in strong annual sales growth in nearly all provinces in 2010, led by British Columbia and Ontario.
National home sales activity is expected to remain strong in the first half of 2010, fuelled by low interest rates and homebuyers motivated to avoid the HST before it comes into effect in Ontario and British Columbia. Over the second half of the year, national activity is expected to trend downward as the last of pent-up demand is exhausted, interest rates begin rising, and the HST comes into effect in Ontario and British Columbia.
Interest rate increases will contribute to weaker national sales activity in 2011. National home sales activity is forecast to decline 7.1 per cent to 490,100 units in 2011, putting it on par with annual levels reported in 2005 and 2006.
“Although interest rates are expected to rise, they will still be low enough to keep affordability within reach for many homebuyers requiring mortgage financing, and support overall housing demand,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger.
The national average home price is forecast to climb 5.4 per cent in 2010, reaching a record $337,500, with average price gains forecast in all provinces. The national average price increase will continue to reflect upward skewing from the rebound in activity among Canada’s priciest markets, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario.
The national average price is forecast to ease by 1.5 per cent in 2011. Modest average price gains are forecast for all provinces except British Columbia and Ontario, whose share of national activity is expected to ease. The shift in the contribution made by provinces toward national activity will continue skewing the annual comparison in the national average price in 2011.
The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national average price is forecast to climb 4.8 per cent in 2010, and remain stable in 2011.
“Improved financial market stability and recovering global economic growth mean that home sales activity in 2010 is unlikely to repeat the dive it experienced in late 2008 and early 2009,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump.
“Fiscal restraint, a strong Canadian dollar and a subdued inflation outlook point to marginal interest rate increases over the next couple of years, especially if the U.S. economic recovery proves to be weak and protracted,” said Klump.
“The Bank of Canada will need time to gauge the effect of interest rate increases on Canadian economic growth,” Klump said. “It recognizes that consumer debt burdens are running high, so it will want to gauge the impact of interest rate hikes on domestic demand and overall economic growth. Changes in interest rates impact the economy with a lag, so the timing and magnitude of interest rate hikes will be tricky, given that the Bank expects the private sector to lead economic growth once temporary government stimulus spending expires,” he added.
“The decline and subsequent rebound in sales activity for homes in the upper price spectrum in some of Canada’s priciest markets skewed average prices upward in the second half of 2009 and into 2010. This segment of housing activity in Ontario and British Columbia is expected to ease beginning in the second half of 2010, causing average prices to moderate in those provinces,” said Klump.
“A downward trend in national sales activity combined with an increase in listings will result in a more balanced market. Although builders are understandably more upbeat than they were during the depth of the recession, speculative building will likely continue to be held in check. As a result, while the real estate market will become more balanced, Canada will continue to avoid the massive realignment in housing supply and demand experienced in the U.S.”
CREA Residential Market Forecast:
| Residential unit sales forecast |
2009 |
2009 Annual percentage change |
2010 Forecast |
2010 Annual percentage change |
2011 Forecast |
2011 Annual percentage change |
| Canada |
465,251 |
7.7 |
527,300 |
13.3 |
490,100 |
-7.1 |
| British Columbia |
85,028 |
23.4 |
101,900 |
19.8 |
88,800 |
-12.9 |
| Alberta |
57,786 |
2.5 |
63,050 |
9.1 |
64,000 |
1.5 |
| Saskatchewan |
10,856 |
6.5 |
10,900 |
0.4 |
11,050 |
1.4 |
| Manitoba |
13,086 |
-3.2 |
14,050 |
7.4 |
14,350 |
2.1 |
| Ontario |
195,840 |
8.2 |
223,700 |
14.2 |
200,300 |
-10.5 |
| Quebec |
79,290 |
3.3 |
87,950 |
10.9 |
85,450 |
-2.8 |
| New Brunswick |
7,003 |
-7.3 |
7,550 |
7.8 |
7,700 |
2.0 |
| Nova Scotia |
10,021 |
-7.8 |
11,400 |
13.8 |
11,500 |
0.9 |
| Prince Edward Island |
1,404 |
-0.6 |
1,450 |
3.3 |
1,450 |
0.0 |
| Newfoundland |
4,416 |
-5.9 |
4,900 |
11.0 |
5,050 |
3.1 |
| Residential average price forecast |
2009 |
2009 Annual percentage change |
2010 Forecast |
2010 Annual percentage change |
2011 Forecast |
2011 Annual percentage change |
| Canada |
320,333 |
5.0 |
337,500 |
5.4 |
332,400 |
-1.5 |
| British Columbia |
465,725 |
2.4 |
485,500 |
4.2 |
476,600 |
-1.8 |
| Alberta |
341,201 |
-3.3 |
357,300 |
4.7 |
361,700 |
1.2 |
| Saskatchewan |
233,695 |
4.1 |
242,500 |
3.8 |
248,500 |
2.5 |
| Manitoba |
201,343 |
5.8 |
210,300 |
4.4 |
215,300 |
2.4 |
| Ontario |
318,366 |
5.3 |
332,700 |
4.5 |
326,000 |
-2.0 |
| Quebec |
225,412 |
4.7 |
240,500 |
6.7 |
249,100 |
3.6 |
| New Brunswick |
154,906 |
6.3 |
159,400 |
2.9 |
164,200 |
3.0 |
| Nova Scotia |
196,690 |
3.6 |
200,900 |
2.1 |
204,700 |
1.9 |
| Prince Edward Island |
146,044 |
4.4 |
149,900 |
2.6 |
153,200 |
2.2 |
| Newfoundland |
206,374 |
15.6 |
222,300 |
7.7 |
238,900 |
7.5 |
NOTE: All statistics contained in this release are obtained through analysis of the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards across Canada.
MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
Registrants in any province who become members of organized real estate have an obligation to act in accordance with the REALTOR® Code. This Code outlines the accepted standard of conduct for all real estate practitioners who are members of a real estate Board or a Provincial Association.
CREA owns the MLS® and REALTOR® trademarks, which signify a high standard of service and identify members of CREA.
For further information, please contact:
Spencer Callaghan, Communications Officer
The Canadian Real Estate Association
P: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E: scallaghan@crea.ca
To view the complete release visit: http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/nationalresidentialforecast2010.pdf
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Ottawa – February 1, 2010 – On behalf of Human Resources and Skills Development Minister Diane Finley, Rob Moore, Minister of State for Small Business and Tourism, joined today with Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) CEO Pierre Beauchamp to announce that self-employed REALTORS® can now participate in the Employment Insurance (EI) program.
“From coast-to-coast-coast, a large majority of REALTORS® are self-employed,” says Mr. Beauchamp. “By creating a level playing field within the EI program, many of our members will no longer have to worry about taking time away from their careers to have a baby or care for a family member who is gravely ill.”
Bill C-56, the Fairness for the Self-Employed Act, extends EI benefits for self-employed REALTORS® for:
· maternity benefits (15 weeks maximum), which are available to mothers and cover the period surrounding birth (a claim can start up to eight weeks before the expected birth date);
· parental/adoptive benefits (35 weeks maximum), which are available to biological or adoptive parents while they are caring for a newborn or newly adopted child, and may be taken by either parent or shared between them;
· sickness benefits (15 weeks maximum), which may be paid to a person who is unable to work because of sickness, injury or quarantine; and
· compassionate care benefits (six weeks maximum), which may be paid to persons who have to be away from work temporarily to provide care or support to a family member who is gravely ill with a significant risk of death.
Self-employed Canadians who voluntarily opt in to the EI program are eligible to collect benefits as early as January 1, 2011.
“CREA is thrilled that the Government of Canada listened to REALTORS® and other self-employed Canadians,” says CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “To have this legislation introduced and passed so promptly demonstrates the government’s willingness to help each and every working Canadian.”
“It’s nice to know that REALTORS® now have the choice to balance career and family along with other working Canadians,” adds Bruce Mullett, Chair of CREA’s Federal Affairs Committee. “Real estate transactions contribute $132 billion to the economy and add 202,750 jobs annually to Canada’s economy.”
REALTORS® who opt in to the program will pay the same EI premium rate as salaried employees in their province. They will not be required to pay the employer portion of premiums, which takes into account the fact they will not have access to EI regular benefits. Premiums, and resulting benefits, will be based on income.
About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
Registrants in any province who become members of organized real estate have an obligation to act in accordance with the REALTOR(R) Code. This Code outlines the accepted standard of conduct for all real estate practitioners who are members of a real estate Board or a Provincial Association.
CREA owns the MLS(R) and REALTOR(R) trademarks, which signify a high standard of service and identify members of CREA.
For further information: or to arrange an interview, please contact:
Alyson Fair, Publicist
The Canadian Real Estate Association
(613) 237-7111 ext 2284
afair@crea.ca

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Reiterates commitment to hold until end of second quarter of 2010
As was widely expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 0.25 per cent at its setting on January 19th, 2010. The trend-setting Bank rate, which is set 0.25 percentage points above the overnight lending rate, remains at 0.5 per cent.
With the economic recovery under way, the Bank acknowledged that the outlook for global growth was “somewhat stronger” than it had predicted in October, but stressed that this was still very much dependent on “exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as extraordinary measures taken to support financial systems.” The Bank did, however, remove its comment regarding “significant fragilities” in the global economy, which had featured prominently in the previous two announcements.
Economic growth in Canada turned positive in the third quarter, and is expected to have improved further in the fourth quarter, accompanied by an increase in total CPI inflation, and higher than expected core rate of inflation.
The Bank said it believes that the Canadian economy will have contracted 2.5 per cent 2009, though annual data is not yet finalized. The Bank had originally predicted a 2.4 per cent decline. The Bank also made some small changes to its forecast for this year and next. The Bank now sees economic growth of 2.9 per cent in 2010, down slightly from the 3.0 per cent projection in October.
For 2011, the forecast was upgraded to 3.5 per cent from 3.3 per cent last fall. The Bank said “the private sector should become the sole driver of domestic demand in 2011,” which is when government stimulus is set to expire.
The Bank named a number of factors supporting Canada’s economic recovery – policy support, increased confidence, improving financial conditions, global growth, and higher terms of trade. The Bank reiterated that the strong Canadian dollar and weak U.S. demand were the main drags on the Canadian economy. As a result, growth continues to be driven more by the domestic side and less by exports.
The Bank said that the profile for the recovery in Canada was still consistent with its October Monetary Policy Report, saying inflation would return to the 2 per cent target in the third quarter of 2011. Conditional on this outlook, the overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010.
The Bank noted that the risks to the inflation outlook remain unchanged from those outlined in the October Monetary Policy Report. Inflation could climb faster if global and domestic demand ends up being stronger than currently expected. By contrast, inflationary pressures would be held in check by a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar.
While the Bank said it judged these risks to be roughly balanced, it noted that, since it cannot lower rates any further, the overall risk to the projection are tilted slightly to the downside.
“The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave rates on hold, until at least the second half of 2010, confirms the view that it’s still to early to even consider tapping the brakes on economic growth,” said CREA’s Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “While interest rates will eventually rise, the increases are likely to be small. The Bank recognizes that economic growth will rely on domestic demand once temporary government spending measures aimed at propping up economic growth expire. Raising interest rates too soon and by too much runs the risk of choking economic growth.”
As of January 19th, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate stood at 5.49 per cent. This is down 1.26 per cent from one year earlier, and stands 0.1 per cent below where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on December 8th.
Improving credit market conditions have enabled lenders to reintroduce discounts off posted mortgage interest rates. Discounts of up to a percentage point can be negotiated, depending on lender-client relationship.
http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm
(CREA 01/19/2010)

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