Statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the number of newly listed homes and sales activity declined in June 2010.
Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards receded 8.2 per cent in June from the previous month. Led by lower activity in Toronto and Calgary, sales declined in almost 70 per cent of local markets.
Tightened mortgage regulations and anticipated interest rate increases cooled sales activity throughout the second quarter, resulting in a decline of 13.3 per cent from near-record levels in the first quarter. As expected, these two national factors contributed to a widespread decline in activity, with transactions down in all but a dozen or so smaller markets.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity was 19.7 per cent lower in June 2010 compared to last year, when activity almost reached a new record for the month. Actual sales activity in the second quarter stood 2.8 per cent below levels reported in the second quarter of 2009. For the year-to-date, transactions are up 13.6 per cent compared to the first-six months of last year. This gap is expected to shrink as the year progresses, since activity trended upward over the second half of last year and is forecast to continue easing over the second half of 2010.
The number of newly listed homes on Canadian MLS® Systems in June 2010 declined by 6.8 per cent from the previous month, following a monthly decline of 4.8 per cent in May. A declining trend in new listings will help maintain the balance between supply and demand, and temper home price volatility.
The national average price of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems rose 4.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June to $342,662.
The national average price can be skewed by changes in provincial sales activity. The national weighted average price compensates for this by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 6.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June 2010. Similarly, the residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 5.7 per cent year-over-year in June, while the weighted major market average price rose 8.7 per cent.
The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and measures the balance between housing supply and demand. It stood at 5.7 months at the end of June 2010 on a national basis. This is up from 4.2 months one year ago, when it fell to its lowest level since the economic recovery began. The rise in the number of months of inventory was widespread, with increases from year-ago levels in all provinces, except Manitoba and Prince Edward Island.
The seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory stood at 6.9 months at the end of June on a national basis, the highest level since March 2009. It may rise further as sales activity trends lower over the second half of 2010, but an expected decline in the number of new listings should stabilize the balance between supply and demand.
“The housing market is becoming more challenging for sellers,” said CREA President Georges Pahud. “Buyers are in less of a hurry, so sellers should consult with their local REALTOR® on how to best price and present their home to attract purchase offers.”
“National home sales activity is easing due to fewer and more cautious first-time home buyers,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “With interest rates on the rise, housing affordability and home sales activity are expected to continue to erode over the second half of 2010. While the pricing environment is becoming more challenging, a recovering economy and job market will provide support for housing activity and prices.”
PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 99,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/media_july15rpt_e.pdf
For more information, please contact:
Spencer Callaghan, Communications Officer
The Canadian Real Estate Association
P: 613-237-7111
E: scallaghan@crea.ca
Canadians will find it more expensive to own a home this year and in 2011, as higher interest rates are expected to chip away at affordability even as the rise in home prices begins to subside, two of Canada's major banks predicted Tuesday. A report by RBC Economics Research released Tuesday said affordability would deteriorate throughout 2010 and 2011 as rising interest rates increase mortgage and other loan payments.
"Some erosion in affordability is going to come from higher interest rates... (meanwhile) prices continue to rise. Combine the two and I think the second quarter you should expect some further deterioration in affordability," said RBC senior economist Robert Hogue.
Canada's hot housing market is coming back into balance between supply and demand following a seller-friendly period in which buyers competed for — and drove up the prices of — the few houses for sale during the first stages of economic recovery.
As demand cools and supplies increase, the pace of price increases will slow, but won't fall fast enough to offset rising interest and mortgage rates, Hogue said.
"I'd be hard-pressed to see any kind of the recent pace in price increases being maintained, but it might not be an outright decline any time very soon," he added.
The RBC report found home ownership costs in Canada rose across all housing segments in the first three months of 2010 — the third quarter of increases in a row.
With the exception of Alberta, home affordability measures deteriorated across all provinces with significant declines in affordability in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Housing affordability declined more moderately in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada.
Meanwhile, a new report from the Canadian Real Estate Association found that Canadian home prices are unlikely to undergo the type of sharp correction seen south of the border, where prices plummeted and foreclosures ensued.
The CREA report says the current period of high home prices is a natural part of the demand-driven market cycle.
"The Canadian housing market is now widely thought to be at, or very near, the top of a cycle, and the ratio of home prices to incomes is currently high," said its chief economist Gregory Klump.
The CREA report said the income-to-house price ratio will soon revert to its long-term average as it always does as part of a normal housing market cycle.
"History suggests, however, that it will not do so by means of a significant correction in home prices. The more likely scenario is that home prices will stabilize, giving incomes a chance to catch up again," Klump said.
Unlike their U.S. counterparts, Canadian mortgage holders have borrowed conservatively and are accelerating mortgage repayment, which will give options to those who may face financial difficulties when they renew their mortgage at a higher rate, the report said.
A report on housing affordability by CIBC World Markets on Tuesday suggested about 1.5 million, or 17 per cent, of houses in Canada, are currently overvalued.
CIBC senior economist Benjamin estimated that, on average, Canadian home prices are now around 14 per cent over their "fair" value, adding there would likely be a five to ten per cent price correction in the next few years.
"This pace of appreciation has been quicker than justified by housing market fundamentals such as income, rent or demographic changes," Tal wrote in the report.
"While the booming housing market is starting to come back to earth, the fact that prices are overvalued today does not necessarily mean that they will crash tomorrow," he added.
Tal's report found the average price of a house has risen by nearly 23 per cent since reaching recent cyclical lows in January 2009. And the erosion of affordability — as interest rates rise faster than prices drop — could cause problems for the most vulnerable segment of the population, he said.
CIBC's new home ownership affordability index found that home ownership is increasingly difficult for families with household incomes less than $50,000, who on average spend close to 60 per cent of their gross income on mortgage payments, property taxes and electricity costs.
The report found that Canadians today spend 15.6 per cent of their average gross personal income on mortgage payments, which is about the same as 10 years ago. When adding in electricity bills and property taxes, it rises to about 22 per cent of gross income.
Tal predicted that in the second quarter of the year, affordability will continue to deteriorate, even as prices level off. He added that home prices will fall in the second half of the year and in to 2011, which will improve affordability.
"I don't think affordability will be a major issue over the next two years. I think it will be relatively stable with interest rates rising, but prices actually going down a little bit," he said.
After a buoyant, if geographically uneven start to the year, Canada’s housing market is poised to moderate as 2010 unfolds, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey. The post-recession real estate recovery, which began in earnest in the third quarter of 2009, continued unabated in the first quarter of the year. While year-over-year unit sales volumes increased and prices appreciated across the country, a look back at the two year period that spanned the recession’s beginning and end shows that some cities have experienced a rollercoaster effect of declining and rising prices, while at the other extreme, home prices in some regions never stopped appreciating.
“The first quarter of 2010 continued where 2009 left off, with more Canadians enthusiastically participating in a rejuvenated residential real estate market,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “One of the earliest sectors of the economy to return to growth after the difficult recessionary period, the housing sector has been a prime beneficiary of low borrowing costs and improving consumer confidence.”
House prices were up across all key housing types surveyed by Royal LePage, with the average price of a detached bungalow in Canada rising almost 11 per cent to $329,209 in the first quarter year-over-year, while standard two-storey homes rose 10.3 per cent to $365,141 and standard condominiums increased 10.9 per cent to $228,963.
While some analysts have described house price increases over the past 12 months as a national housing boom, an analysis of Royal LePage data from Q1 2008 through Q1 2010 shows three different patterns of house price trends in Canada’s major cities:
“National averages from our first quarter report are not particularly useful in painting a picture of the country’s neighbourhood real estate stories. House sale data from the past two year period shows tremendous variances in terms of how different cities reacted to the recession,” Soper said. “In Vancouver and Toronto, for instance, the dramatic unit sales fluctuations exhibit a significant degree of market irrationality: inordinately fearful when faced with poorer markets; and overly enthusiastic when the tables turned. Montreal is an example of a city where the market has been much more stable and homeowners there seem quite happy with the relatively slow pace of change.”
“Even in our most frenzied pockets of market activity, the inevitable rise in interest rates coupled with home price appreciation will rein in demand as affordability erodes. Expect house prices to continue to rise, but the rate of appreciation should ebb steadily, month by month, throughout the remainder of the year, as balance returns to the industry,” concluded Soper.
In Ontario, home prices rose across all key housing types in all of the markets surveyed by Royal LePage, with detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes in Toronto seeing some of the largest gains. Greater Toronto home prices rose an average of 10 to 13.3 per cent year-over-year, with detached bungalows reaching an average price of $459,107 in the first quarter. Ottawa price appreciation ranged from 8 to 11.1 per cent year-over-year, with standard two-storey homes averaging $346,833 in the first quarter.
See Royal LePage Spring 2010 House Price Survey (.PDF) »
Canada’s residential real estate market is forecast to remain unusually strong through the first half of 2010 as economic conditions across the country improve and the stimulus impact of low interest rates continues to stoke demand, according to today’s Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast. As confidence in the recovery builds in early 2010, increases in average house price levels and overall market activity are expected to continue. The gradual erosion of affordability driven by higher house prices and the expected late-year modest upward movement of interest rates, together with an improvement in listings supply as confidence improves, are expected to bring the market back into balance in the second half of the year, when home price increases are expected to moderate.
“The Canadian real estate market enters 2010 with considerable momentum from a unusually strong finish to the previous year, said Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “The stimulus effect of low borrowing costs has contributed to a sharp rise in demand that has driven activity levels to new highs. This demand, coupled with a typical seasonal undersupply of homes for sale, should cause home prices to continue to appreciate significantly during the early months of the year. Improving supply as the year unfolds and easing demand as the cost of home ownership rises should moderate home price increases in the second half of 2010.”
In contrast to the difficult months during the worst of the recession, house prices appreciated during the later part of 2009, with fourth quarter price averages surpassing averages from the fourth quarter 2008. The average price of detached bungalows rose to $315,055 (up 6.0%), the price of standard two-storey homes rose to $353,026 (up 5.2%), and the price of a standard condominium rose to $205, 756 (up 6.4%). The first two quarters of 2009 saw significant year-over-year price declines across the housing types surveyed and the third quarter provided the first signs saw a strong rebound in Canadian home values.
Regions that saw the strongest declines during the recession are now showing marked gains. Those regions include Toronto and the Lower Mainland, B.C. Vancouver in particular experienced a robust quarter, with home prices rising across all housing types surveyed.
“No other sector of the economy has been as highly affected by economic stimulus as housing,” commented Soper. “As consumer confidence has improved, Canadians have shown a lingering reluctance to acquire depreciating assets such as consumer durables, but have embraced the opportunity to invest in real property. Predictably, the regions benefiting most from this renewed interest in home ownership are those with lower average house prices and strong economic confidence, such as Winnipeg and parts of Atlantic Canada.”
Soper added, “Our forecast is built upon an expectation that interest rates will ease upward before the year’s end, which should have a dampening effect on demand, allowing it to come into balance with the supply of resale homes on the market. Further, we expect to see an increasing number of homes listed for sale as the year progresses – as Canadians regain confidence in the economy, they should be more willing to enter into a large financial transaction such as the sale of a home.”
Halifax saw varied gains across all surveyed housing types in comparison to fourth quarter 2008. Notably, more affordable homes posted the highest price increases due to the influx of workers returning from Western Canada.
Montreal saw strong gains this quarter as year-over-year price levels rose across all three housing types surveyed. Recent increases in demand have resulted in lower than normal inventory levels. Inventory levels are expected in increase in 2010. Continued demand is expected to result in moderate price levels.
House price levels in Ottawa are moderately higher this quarter compared to fourth quarter 2008 across all housing types surveyed. Fourth quarter sales activity did not slow as expected, and the demand has resulted in higher incidences of sellers receiving multiple offers, an unusual occurrence in end of year activity for this region. While inventory levels are low and there is competition among home buyers, this may abate as the government eases economic stimulus in 2010.
The Toronto market saw year-over-year price increases across the housing types surveyed in the fourth quarter. Of particular interest is the increase in sales of higher-priced units, which were hit hard by the recession over the previous 12 months. There was a surge of first-time buyers active in the market last year, depleting the inventory of entry-level units. They are expected to be joined by move-up, executive, and luxury buyers in the coming year, resulting in additional price appreciation.
Winnipeg saw some of Canada’s largest home price increases this quarter. More than one third of homes sold in the region went for above their asking price driven largely by first time buyer activity. This strong growth is expected to continue well into 2010.
Inventory levels in Regina are low, as much as thirty per cent lower than expected for this time of year; this situation should be corrected in the spring of 2010. House prices should continue to increase into 2010, driven by labour force growth in the construction industry.
Price levels in Calgary remain constant as the market is correcting from the record growth seen in the middle of the previous decade. Inventory levels are one quarter the levels seen in 2008, and the reduction in choice has delayed purchases. Activity and price levels are expected to increase modestly in 2010.
House price levels in Edmonton are also still correcting from the 2005 to 2007 boom. Low inventory levels have provided some price support, and activity is expected to increase in the spring of 2010.
Vancouver saw significant gains in price levels, with average increases of approximately ten per cent across the housing types surveyed. Inventory levels are beginning to decrease, and there has been an increase in sales involving multiple offers. Sales activity may drop off due to the city’s focus on the Olympics in the first quarter, but the market is expected to be robust for the remainder of the year.
Royal LePage’s quarterly House Price Survey (Q4 2009) shows the annual change of prices for key housing segments in select national markets. Click here to view the chart.
National consumer confidence ended the year 2009 on a stronger footing compared to pre-recession levels, despite having edged down slightly the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. According to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence, confidence eased slightly in the fourth quarter for the first time in three quarterly periods. The decrease in confidence reflects weakening sentiment about making major purchases.
The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, dipped slightly into negative territory in the fourth quarter. It had turned positive in the third quarter for the first time since the first quarter of 2008.
A negative balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects continued improving in the fourth quarter of 2008, staying positive for the second consecutive quarter. More survey respondents expect employment to pick up over the next six months, and fewer expect more layoffs.
The balance of sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook softened marginally in the fourth quarter, but remains upbeat. A positive balance of opinion means more households said they expect their household budget to improve in the next six months than said they think it will worsen.
Consumer confidence in British Columbia eased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. Moderating confidence in the fourth quarter reflects softening sentiment about households’ budgetary outlooks, job prospects, and major purchases.
The balance of sentiment about making a major purchase, such as a home or a car, fell sharply and again turned negative in the fourth quarter. It had turned positive in the third quarter for the first time in two years.
A negative balance of opinion means more survey respondents said that it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
Sentiment about job growth prospects deteriorated in the fourth quarter. Although the balance of sentiment about near term job growth remained negative for the seventh consecutive quarter, it remained significantly less negative compared to where it stood at the height of the economic recession.
The balance of sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook stayed upbeat for the third consecutive quarter.
Consumer sentiment in the Prairie region improved for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009, returning to the pre-recession level recorded in the second quarter of 2008.
Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, improved for the fourth consecutive quarter. The balance of sentiment about making major purchases has stayed positive for two consecutive quarters, returning to levels on par with the third quarter of 2007.
A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
Sentiment about job growth prospects continued improving, building on significant increases recorded in the previous two quarters. The balance of opinion about job growth has stayed positive for three consecutive quarters, and is also back on par with pre-recession levels.
The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets edged down only marginally in the fourth quarter on 2009 compared to the previous quarter.
Consumer confidence in Ontario dipped slightly in the fourth quarter of 2009 after having risen in each of the three previous quarters, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. The slight decline in confidence reflects weakened sentiment about households’ budgetary outlooks and about making major purchases.
The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, turned negative in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, it had turned positive for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2007.
A negative balance of opinion means more households said it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This is an important factor underlying the housing market.
The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects improved compared to the previous quarter, turning positive for the first time since the second quarter of 2006.
The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets stayed positive for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009, despite having softened slightly.
Consumer confidence in Quebec eased in the fourth quarter of 2009 but remains well above levels recorded at the height of the economic recession, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. The decrease in confidence reflects weaker sentiment about household budgets and about making major purchases.
Despite having softened compared to the previous quarter, the balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, remained positive in the fourth quarter. This represents the third consecutive quarter in which the balance of sentiment about making major purchases stayed positive.
A positive balance of opinion means more households said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects turned positive for the first time since the beginning of 2008.
The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets for the next six months eased in the fourth quarter, but nevertheless remained positive.
Consumer sentiment improved significantly in the fourth quarter of 2009, continuing its rise above pre-recession levels according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence for the region. This marked the fourth consecutive increase in confidence.
Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, held steady. The balance of sentiment about big-ticket purchases remained positive for the second consecutive quarter.
A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
After improving for a fourth consecutive quarter, the balance of sentiment about job growth became positive in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is its first positive reading since the second quarter of 2008.
The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets over the next six months also improved in the fourth quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which the balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets stayed upbeat.
Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association
National consumer confidence ended the year 2009 on a stronger footing compared to pre-recession levels, despite having edged down slightly the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. According to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence, confidence eased slightly in the fourth quarter for the first time in three quarterly periods. The decrease in confidence reflects weakening sentiment about making major purchases.
The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, dipped slightly into negative territory in the fourth quarter. It had turned positive in the third quarter for the first time since the first quarter of 2008.
A negative balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects continued improving in the fourth quarter of 2008, staying positive for the second consecutive quarter. More survey respondents expect employment to pick up over the next six months, and fewer expect more layoffs.
The balance of sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook softened marginally in the fourth quarter, but remains upbeat. A positive balance of opinion means more households said they expect their household budget to improve in the next six months than said they think it will worsen.
British Columbia
Consumer confidence in British Columbia eased slightly in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. Moderating confidence in the fourth quarter reflects softening sentiment about households’ budgetary outlooks, job prospects, and major purchases.
The balance of sentiment about making a major purchase, such as a home or a car, fell sharply and again turned negative in the fourth quarter. It had turned positive in the third quarter for the first time in two years.
A negative balance of opinion means more survey respondents said that it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
Sentiment about job growth prospects deteriorated in the fourth quarter. Although the balance of sentiment about near term job growth remained negative for the seventh consecutive quarter, it remained significantly less negative compared to where it stood at the height of the economic recession.
The balance of sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook stayed upbeat for the third consecutive quarter.
Prairie region
Consumer sentiment in the Prairie region improved for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009, returning to the pre-recession level recorded in the second quarter of 2008.
Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, improved for the fourth consecutive quarter. The balance of sentiment about making major purchases has stayed positive for two consecutive quarters, returning to levels on par with the third quarter of 2007.
A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
Sentiment about job growth prospects continued improving, building on significant increases recorded in the previous two quarters. The balance of opinion about job growth has stayed positive for three consecutive quarters, and is also back on par with pre-recession levels.
The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets edged down only marginally in the fourth quarter on 2009 compared to the previous quarter.
Ontario
Consumer confidence in Ontario dipped slightly in the fourth quarter of 2009 after having risen in each of the three previous quarters, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. The slight decline in confidence reflects weakened sentiment about households’ budgetary outlooks and about making major purchases.
The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, turned negative in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, it had turned positive for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2007.
A negative balance of opinion means more households said it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This is an important factor underlying the housing market.
The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects improved compared to the previous quarter, turning positive for the first time since the second quarter of 2006.
The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets stayed positive for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009, despite having softened slightly.
Quebec
Consumer confidence in Quebec eased in the fourth quarter of 2009 but remains well above levels recorded at the height of the economic recession, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. The decrease in confidence reflects weaker sentiment about household budgets and about making major purchases.
Despite having softened compared to the previous quarter, the balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, remained positive in the fourth quarter. This represents the third consecutive quarter in which the balance of sentiment about making major purchases stayed positive.
A positive balance of opinion means more households said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects turned positive for the first time since the beginning of 2008.
The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets for the next six months eased in the fourth quarter, but nevertheless remained positive.
Atlantic region
Consumer sentiment improved significantly in the fourth quarter of 2009, continuing its rise above pre-recession levels according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence for the region. This marked the fourth consecutive increase in confidence.
Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, held steady. The balance of sentiment about big-ticket purchases remained positive for the second consecutive quarter.
A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
After improving for a fourth consecutive quarter, the balance of sentiment about job growth became positive in the fourth quarter of 2009. This is its first positive reading since the second quarter of 2008.
The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets over the next six months also improved in the fourth quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which the balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets stayed upbeat.
(CREA 11/22/09)
Canada
National consumer confidence continued to improve for the third consecutive quarter in the third quarter of 2009, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence. Consumer sentiment is up from the end of 2008, and now stands above pre-recession levels. The sharp rise in confidence resulted from improved sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook, job growth prospects, and major purchases.
Consumer confidence was down slightly in October 2009 after seven consecutive monthly gains, but remains well above where it stood in the third quarter of 2008.
The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, broke into positive territory for the first time since the first quarter of 2008. Sentiment was on par with upbeat levels last seen at the end of 2007.
The balance of sentiment about making major purchases edged lower in October, but stayed positive for the third consecutive month.
A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
Sentiment about job growth prospects continued to improve significantly in the third quarter of 2009, rising into positive territory for the first time since the first quarter of 2008. More survey respondents expect employment to pick up over the next six months, and fewer expect more layoffs.
The balance of sentiment about households’ budgetary outlook also rose in the third quarter. A positive balance of opinion means more households said they expect their household budget to improve in the next six months than said they think it will worsen.
British Columbia
Consumer confidence in British Columbia continued improving in the third quarter of 2009, with the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence rising to the highest quarterly level since the first quarter of 2008.
Consumer confidence rose further in October, reaching the highest monthly level since May 2008.
Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, rose in the third quarter, building on improvements in the previous two quarters. The balance of sentiment about major purchases now stands in positive territory for the first time since the third quarter of 2007.
The balance of sentiment about major purchases dipped slightly into negative territory in October.
A negative balance of opinion means more survey respondents said that it was a bad time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a good time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
Sentiment about job growth prospects continued improving in the third quarter of 2009, building on increases in the previous two quarters. The balance of sentiment about job growth prospects remains just shy of positive, but is up from levels recorded in the second quarter of 2008.
After turning positive in the second quarter, the balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets continued improving in the third quarter of 2009.
Prairie region
Consumer sentiment in the Prairie region improved for the second consecutive quarter in the third quarter of 2009, returning to pre-recession levels.
Consumer confidence was also up slightly in October 2009.
Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, improved for the third consecutive quarter. The balance of sentiment about making major purchases entered positive territory for the first time since the first quarter of 2008.
The balance of sentiment about major purchases remained positive in October 2009, despite having softened compared to September. This is the third consecutive month in which the balance remained positive.
A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
Sentiment about the prospects for job growth continued to improve, building on the significant increase in the previous quarter. The balance of opinion about job growth has been positive for two consecutive quarters.
The balance of sentiment regarding the outlook for household budgets also improved in the third quarter, and is now on par with levels from the first quarter of 2008.
Ontario
Consumer confidence in Ontario climbed for the third consecutive quarter in the third quarter of 2009, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence.
Consumer confidence continued its steady ascent in October 2009, building on increases since the beginning of the year. Consumer confidence now stands at the highest level since the first quarter of 2008.
Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, improved for the third consecutive quarter. The balance of opinion about making major purchases was positive for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2007, and stood just below levels from that quarter.
The upward momentum in the balance of opinion regarding major purchases continued into October. The balance of sentiment remained in positive territory for the third consecutive month, and reached the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007.
A positive balance of opinion means more households said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This is an important factor underlying the housing market.
Sentiment about job growth prospects in Ontario has improved significantly, returning to pre-recession levels. The balance of sentiment was just shy of positive in the third quarter, and was equal to levels from the third quarter of 2007.
The balance of sentiment about the outlook for household budgets remained positive in the third quarter of 2009, after rebounding sharply in the previous quarter.
Quebec
Consumer sentiment in Quebec continued to improve in the third quarter of 2009, with the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence back on par with pre-recession levels.
Consumer confidence levels edged lower in October 2009 from the peak in September, back on par with where it stood in August.
The balance of sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, improved significantly in the third quarter after having returned to positive territory for the first time in more than a year in the second quarter. A positive balance of opinion means more households said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
The balance of sentiment about major purchases was down significantly in October, but remained positive.
The balance of opinion about job growth prospects improved significantly in the third quarter of 2009, coming to rest just shy of positive territory. This was the best result since the first quarter of 2008.
Sentiment about the outlook for household budgets over the next six months also improved in the third quarter, becoming more upbeat than in any other quarter since the fourth quarter of 2007.
Atlantic region
Consumer sentiment rebounded above pre-recession levels in the third quarter of 2009. Consumer confidence rose for the third consecutive quarter, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s index of consumer confidence for the region.
Consumer confidence levels held steady in October compared to the previous month, remaining above where they stood in the second quarter of 2008.
Sentiment about making major purchases, such as a home or a car, continued to improve in the third quarter. The balance of sentiment entered positive territory for the first time since the first quarter of 2008, building on increases from the previous two quarters.
The balance of opinion regarding major purchases as of October 2009 was down slightly from September, but remained positive for the second consecutive month.
A positive balance of sentiment means more survey respondents said it was a good time to buy a big-ticket item, such as a home or car, than said it was a bad time to do so. This indicator is an important factor underlying the housing market.
After improving for the third consecutive quarter, sentiment about job growth prospects was just shy of entering positive territory in the third quarter of 2009.
By contrast, sentiment about the outlook for household budgets over the next six months was down in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, but remained in positive territory for the third consecutive quarter.
(CREA 10/10/09)
