Commercial Real Estate News Blog

Notes slowing global economic growth

The Bank of Canada increased the target for its trend-setting overnight lending rate on July 20, 2010, raising it by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.75 per cent. The increase follows on the heels of an equal interest rate increase in June 2010, when it was raised for the first time since 2007. The Bank rate now stands at one per cent.

In its most recent interest rate announcement, the Bank marked down its outlook for economic growth globally, emphasizing the uneven economic recovery in the U.S., and weakening prospects for European economic growth.

In the Bank’s view, Canada’s domestic economy is evolving largely as expected in recent months, but trimmed its forecast for economic growth this year and next by 0.2 per cent to 3.5 per cent in 2010 and 2.9 per cent in 2011. While the Bank raised its forecast for Canadian economic to 2.2 per cent in 2012, it nonetheless left the easing trend for growth intact.

The Bank indicated, “[this] revision reflects a slightly weaker profile for global economic growth and more modest consumption growth in Canada. The Bank anticipates that business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth.
Where the domestic recovery had previously been led by housing and consumer spending it is now guided more by government stimulus.”

The Bank also reaffirmed its view that housing activity and household expenditures was pulled forward into the first half of 2010, causing to soften in the second half. It also recognized that business investment has been weaker than it previously expected, “held back by global uncertainties.” The Bank anticipates “that business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth” over its forecast horizon.

As of July 20th, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate of 5.79 per cent was down 0.06 per cent from one year earlier, and 0.2 per cent below where it stood when Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on June 1, 2010. However, it is 0.3 percentage points higher than it was at the beginning of the year.

The Bank has signaled to financial markets that it is leaving its options wide open as to whether it will raise interest rates further when it makes its next rate announcement on September 8th.

“As it did with its previous announcement in June, the Bank messaged financial markets that further interest rate increases are not pre-ordained,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “The strength of recent economic indicators have prompted the Bank to raise interest rates, but the Bank has signaled that may keep rates on hold should the economic recovery begin to show signs of loosing steam.”

The Bank’s July MPR will be published on July 22. The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on September 8th.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm

(CREA 07/20/2010)

Statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that the number of newly listed homes and sales activity declined in June 2010.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards receded 8.2 per cent in June from the previous month. Led by lower activity in Toronto and Calgary, sales declined in almost 70 per cent of local markets.

Tightened mortgage regulations and anticipated interest rate increases cooled sales activity throughout the second quarter, resulting in a decline of 13.3 per cent from near-record levels in the first quarter. As expected, these two national factors contributed to a widespread decline in activity, with transactions down in all but a dozen or so smaller markets.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity was 19.7 per cent lower in June 2010 compared to last year, when activity almost reached a new record for the month. Actual sales activity in the second quarter stood 2.8 per cent below levels reported in the second quarter of 2009. For the year-to-date, transactions are up 13.6 per cent compared to the first-six months of last year. This gap is expected to shrink as the year progresses, since activity trended upward over the second half of last year and is forecast to continue easing over the second half of 2010.

The number of newly listed homes on Canadian MLS® Systems in June 2010 declined by 6.8 per cent from the previous month, following a monthly decline of 4.8 per cent in May. A declining trend in new listings will help maintain the balance between supply and demand, and temper home price volatility.

The national average price of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems rose 4.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June to $342,662.

The national average price can be skewed by changes in provincial sales activity. The national weighted average price compensates for this by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 6.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June 2010. Similarly, the residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 5.7 per cent year-over-year in June, while the weighted major market average price rose 8.7 per cent.

The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and measures the balance between housing supply and demand. It stood at 5.7 months at the end of June 2010 on a national basis. This is up from 4.2 months one year ago, when it fell to its lowest level since the economic recovery began. The rise in the number of months of inventory was widespread, with increases from year-ago levels in all provinces, except Manitoba and Prince Edward Island.

The seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory stood at 6.9 months at the end of June on a national basis, the highest level since March 2009. It may rise further as sales activity trends lower over the second half of 2010, but an expected decline in the number of new listings should stabilize the balance between supply and demand.

“The housing market is becoming more challenging for sellers,” said CREA President Georges Pahud. “Buyers are in less of a hurry, so sellers should consult with their local REALTOR® on how to best price and present their home to attract purchase offers.”

“National home sales activity is easing due to fewer and more cautious first-time home buyers,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “With interest rates on the rise, housing affordability and home sales activity are expected to continue to erode over the second half of 2010. While the pricing environment is becoming more challenging, a recovering economy and job market will provide support for housing activity and prices.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 99,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/media_july15rpt_e.pdf

For more information, please contact:

Spencer Callaghan, Communications Officer
The Canadian Real Estate Association
P: 613-237-7111
E: scallaghan@crea.ca

Toronto’s housing market roared back to life in the first half of 2010, with single-detached homes and condominium apartments and townhouses posting unprecedented double-digit gains in average price in most districts, according to a report released today by RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. This is in stark contrast to the July 2009 RE/MAX report that found that values in approximately 80 per cent of neighbourhoods surveyed in Toronto had depreciated over the same period in 2008.

RE/MAX examined 63 Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) districts in the single-detached category between January and June of 2010 and found that 85.7 per cent experienced double-digit gains. Mississauga’s Lorne Park (W13) led in terms of percentage increase in average price with a 30.2 per cent upswing in the first six months of the year, bringing year-to-date values in the area to $880,373 (vs. $676289 in 2009 and $830,041 in 2008). Markham (N01) ranked second with a 27.7 per cent jump to $779,168 (vs. $610,322 in 2009 and $683,050 in 2008) while Armour Heights, Bathurst Manor (C06) came in a close third at 27.5 per cent (rising to $732,535 from $574,599 in 2009 and $589,808 one year earlier). Mississauga’s Creditview, Erindale area (W16) secured fourth spot with an average price of $561,973—up 26.5 per cent over 2009’s $444,221 and 2008’s $476,877. Rounding out the top five was York Mills, Hogg’s Hollow, Bridle Path (C12) with a 26.2 per cent increase over last year and an average price of $1,868,591 (vs. $1,480,296 in 2009 and $1,580,851 in 2008).

“While first-time buyers dominated housing markets during the first half of 2009, move-up buyers ruled during January to June of 2010,” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Rising interest rates and the introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) in the province helped drive activity, with more than 50,000 sales reported year-to-date—a figure on par with record 2007 levels.”

As in years past—the exception being 2009—the second half of the year will be more tempered, with price appreciation moderating somewhat in most neighbourhoods. The one exception to the rule will be the hot pocket areas that continue to experience limited inventory.

With affordability a growing issue for many in the Toronto market, the city’s vast supply of existing condominium apartments and townhomes offer a financially attractive alternative. Like single-detached homes, however, condominium prices were on the upswing in the first six months of the year in the 59 TREB districts examined—with 61 per cent reporting double-digit increases.

The Danforth, East York (E03) was the top performing condominium market in terms of price appreciation—with values up 28.2 per cent to $222,421. While the increase is significant compared to the same period in 2009, it’s a more moderate 15 per cent ahead of the $195,019 reported in 2008. Yorkville (C02) secured second spot, with a 22.6 per cent increase in values, bringing average price to $653,745—a serious uptick over the 2009 level of $553,302 but only a nominal 5.6 increase over 2008’s $619,151. Markham (N01) took third place with an increase of 22.1 per cent to $332,590 over the 2009 figure ($272,316). Bayview Village (C15)—Toronto’s newest condominium corridor—saw a 19.6 per cent increase, with values rising to $331,063. North York (C14) continued to experience upward momentum during the first half of the year, with average price on the Yonge St. line up 19.5 per cent to $363,685, compared to the $304,342 reported during the same period in 2009.

Overall, single-detached homes in TREB’s North district (north of Steeles Ave.) saw the greatest percentage increase, with year-to-date average price rising 17.5 per cent to $617,723 (compared to $525,635 one year ago). Not surprisingly, condominium apartments and townhomes in the central core experienced the most significant upswing, with average price in TREB’s Central district rising 16.8 per cent to $385,996, up from $330,517 one year ago.

“Both housing types experienced serious percentage increases year-over-year – yet its important to keep those price hikes in perspective,” says Polzler. “Last year, 80 per cent of those districts experienced a decline in value. The bounce-back—fuelled by unprecedented market conditions including a severe shortage in listing inventory—simply returned average prices to their normal course.”

Source: RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada

OTTAWA – June 16th, 2010 – Statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that home sales activity and new listings in Canada declined in May.

Seasonally adjusted home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards declined nationally by 9.5 per cent in May from near-record level activity the previous month. While activity declined in more than 70 per cent of local markets, the lower national figure resulted largely from fewer sales in Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity was down 4.3 per cent in May from the same month last year. In a departure from the normal seasonal pattern, national activity levels in May were also down from April levels. This suggests that the combination of changes to mortgage regulations and rising mortgage rates pulled forward a number of sales into April that would have otherwise taken place at a later date.

“May was the first full month in which sales activity was affected by these changes,” said CREA President Georges Pahud. “An accompanying decline in new listings and housing starts means these changes are also affecting the supply side, which will keep the market balanced and Canadian home prices stable.”

The seasonally adjusted number of homes that were new listings on Canadian MLS® Systems in May 2010 declined by four per cent from the previous month. This marks the first monthly decline in new listings in eight months. New listings had been climbing sharply, rising from a four-year low last September to the second highest level ever last month.

The number of homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems at the end of May was up 5.4 per cent from levels at the same time last year, when the supply of homes for sale on the market had started declining.

The national average price of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems rose 8.5 per cent in May from a year ago. This is a smaller increase compared to those recorded over the past nine months.

“Supply and demand has become more balanced in a number of major markets,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Homebuyers now have more choice and are likely be in less of a rush to purchase than they were recently, so the amount of time it takes to sell a home is expected to rise in the coming months.”

With last year’s string of downwardly skewed average price values having now mostly passed, year-over-year national average price comparisons are coming back into line with changes in the national weighted average price.

The weighted average price compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 8.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May 2010. Similarly, the residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 9.8 per cent year-over-year in May, while the weighted major market average price rose 10.7 per cent.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory stood at 5.3 months in May 2010. This is up from 4.8 months at the same time last year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, months of inventory stood at 6.1 months in May, the highest level since last April.

“The number of months of inventory may rise further in response to easing sales activity and a further rise in the number of active listings,” said Klump. “However, the number of newly listed homes will ultimately retreat in response to a more competitive sales and pricing environment in a number of local markets. The outlooks for the Canadian economy, employment, and mortgage market trends remain upbeat, so supply and demand will remain balanced on a national basis. Canada will avoid a U.S.-style home price correction.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 96,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at

http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/Media_May10rpt_e.pdf

The Canadian Real Estate Association forecast Wednesday that home prices will fall by 2.2 per cent next year. The agency expects the average price of a home in Canada to be $325,400 by the end of 2010, a 1.6 per cent increase over 2009's level. Though still a gain, that's well below the 5.4 per cent increase the agency was previously expecting for 2010.

But by 2011, the agency expects a 2.2 per cent decline in the average price. That's because a slowdown in Ontario and British Columbia, the two largest housing markets in the country, will drag the national average down. All other provinces are forecast to post gains, CREA said.

"With interest rates soon expected to rise, Canada is widely believed to be entering a typical demand-driven downturn due to recent price increases and rising interest rates,” CREA chief economist Gregory Klump said.

Forecast of sales decline

Sales activity overall is forecast to slow. CREA now forecasts that 490,600 homes will be sold on its Multiple Listings Service this year. That's 5.5 per cent higher than the level in 2009, but much lower than the agency was originally forecasting for 2010.

In 2011, an 8.5 per cent drop to 448,700 is expected.

New mortgage rules unveiled by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty in April aimed at curbing speculation are expected to "marginally impact" activity, the agency said.

Although mortgage rates have gone up and are expected to rise further, the association says the higher cost of borrowing will have a minimal impact on the market this year.

"Interest rates are expected to rise slowly and at a measured pace during a new era of government spending restraint, so home financing will remain within reach for many homebuyers," CREA president Georges Pahud said.

Source: CBC News

OTTAWA – June 2, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has lowered its forecast for home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations. The revision reflects a weaker than expected start to the year in British Columbia, and recent developments that pulled forward the timing as to when sales are expected to ease in other provinces.

CREA’s previous national forecast was heavily influenced by British Columbia and Ontario forecast trends, and this remains the case in the revised forecast. While sales activity is unfolding as expected in Ontario, the decline in affordability in British Columbia impacted sales in the province during the first quarter.

Additionally, changes to mortgage regulations announced in February are expected to marginally impact activity. The changes prompted some homebuyers to finance their home purchase before the new regulations took effect in April, which pulled forward a number of sales that would have otherwise taken place at a later date.

April also saw the Bank of Canada drop its conditional commitment to keep interest rates on hold until at least July, opening the door to an interest rate hike before then. Indeed, on June 1st, the Bank announced its decision to raise its trendsetting overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to a ½ a per cent, and indicated it expects the rate of growth to slow for consumer spending.

“Interest rates are expected to rise slowly and at a measured pace during a new era of government spending restraint, so home financing will remain within reach for many homebuyers,” said CREA President Georges Pahud.

CREA had previously forecasted sales would remain at elevated levels through the first half of 2010 before easing in the second half of the year and over 2011. While the forecasted trend for activity has not changed in CREA’s revised forecast, it has been pulled forward, with the fourth quarter of 2009 marking the peak of national activity. This has had the effect of lowering the forecast for national activity over the rest of the year and in 2011.

National activity is forecast to reach 490,600 units in 2010, up 5.5 per cent from 2009 and the second highest annual level on record. Lower expected activity in British Columbia accounts for more than half of the downward revision in national sales activity. Annual activity in Alberta was also revised downward due to weaker than expected activity in the first quarter. Ontario is still expected to see a record number of sales in 2010, but by a smaller margin than previously forecast.

Interest rate increases will contribute to weaker national sales activity in 2011. Transactions via the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards are forecast to decline 8.5 per cent to 448,700 units in 2011. Although this is a similar percentage decline compared to CREA’s previous forecast (-7.1 per cent), the downward revision in national activity levels for 2010 means that the forecast level for sales activity in 2011 has also been revised downward.

The national average home price is forecast to climb 1.6 per cent in 2010, reaching a record $325,400, with average price gains forecast in all provinces. The downward revision from the previously forecast 5.4 per cent gain reflects lower forecast sales activity in British Columbia, where most transactions are priced well above the national average.

All provinces are forecast to post modest average price gains in 2011, except British Columbia and Ontario. The forecast decline in activity is sharpest in these two provinces, with higher-priced transactions weakening most. Average prices are forecast to sag in these two provinces in the second half of 2010 before stabilizing next year. As the Ontario and British Columbia shares of national activity edge lower, there will be fewer higher priced properties in the calculation of the national average price. The national average price is forecast to decline by 2.2 per cent in 2011 as a result.

“With interest rates soon expected to rise, Canada is widely believed to be entering a typical demand-driven downturn due to recent prices increases and rising interest rates,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “A downward trend in national sales activity combined with an increase in listings will result in a more balanced market.”

“In keeping with the return of a balanced housing market and typical demand-driven housing market cycle dynamics, prices will remain stable,” he said. “Canada’s solid mortgage market trends, conservative lending practices, and prudent borrowing by homebuyers means that Canada will avoid the massive realignment in housing supply and demand being experienced in the United States. Accordingly, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing price correction.”

(CREA 06/02/10)

For the first time since 2007, the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by one quarter of one percentage point to 0.5 per cent on June 1, 2010. The Bank rate was raised to 0.75 per cent and the deposit rate was unchanged at 0.25 per cent, thereby re-establishing the normal operating band of 50 basis points.

The Bank had been keeping its benchmark interest rate at the lowest possible level for more than a year to stimulate the fragile economic recovery.

The Bank noted that while that global economic recovery is well under way, it is unfolding unevenly on a global basis. It characterized the ongoing imbalances as “strong momentum in emerging market economies,” and “some consolidation of the recovery in… industrialized economies,” counterbalanced by the “possibility of renewed weakness in Europe.”

The Bank keyed in on current volatility in the European markets as the largest downside risk to global economic growth saying, “Recent tensions in Europe are likely to result in higher borrowing costs and more rapid tightening of fiscal policy in some countries.”
The Bank noted that spillover into Canada from events in Europe has resulted in a modest decline in commodity prices and some tightening in financial conditions.

The Bank downplayed slightly stronger than expected inflation and economic growth saying, “CPI inflation has been in line with the Bank’s April projections,” and “activity in Canada is unfolding largely as expected.” It also played up the idea that consumer spending would soon subside: “Going forward, household spending is expected to decelerate to a pace more consistent with income growth.”

As of June 1st, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate stood at 5.99 per cent. This is down 0.66 per cent from one year earlier, but stands 0.14 per cent above where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on April 20, 2010. It is also one half of a percentage point above where it stood at the beginning of the year.

“The Bank left its options open as to whether it will raise rates again when it makes its next interest rate announcement on July 20th,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “I expect it will raise rates by another quarter of a percentage point at that time, but will take a pause at some point later this year, especially since interest rates in the U.S. are likely on hold until next year.”

“Even though they are on the rise, mortgage rates will still be at low levels that are housing market friendly, with home financing remaining within reach for many homebuyers,” he added.

The Bank will make its next scheduled announcement on July 20th.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm

(CREA 06/01/2010)

Canadians will find it more expensive to own a home this year and in 2011, as higher interest rates are expected to chip away at affordability even as the rise in home prices begins to subside, two of Canada's major banks predicted Tuesday. A report by RBC Economics Research released Tuesday said affordability would deteriorate throughout 2010 and 2011 as rising interest rates increase mortgage and other loan payments.

"Some erosion in affordability is going to come from higher interest rates... (meanwhile) prices continue to rise. Combine the two and I think the second quarter you should expect some further deterioration in affordability," said RBC senior economist Robert Hogue.

Canada's hot housing market is coming back into balance between supply and demand following a seller-friendly period in which buyers competed for — and drove up the prices of — the few houses for sale during the first stages of economic recovery.

As demand cools and supplies increase, the pace of price increases will slow, but won't fall fast enough to offset rising interest and mortgage rates, Hogue said.

"I'd be hard-pressed to see any kind of the recent pace in price increases being maintained, but it might not be an outright decline any time very soon," he added.

The RBC report found home ownership costs in Canada rose across all housing segments in the first three months of 2010 — the third quarter of increases in a row.

With the exception of Alberta, home affordability measures deteriorated across all provinces with significant declines in affordability in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Housing affordability declined more moderately in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada.

Meanwhile, a new report from the Canadian Real Estate Association found that Canadian home prices are unlikely to undergo the type of sharp correction seen south of the border, where prices plummeted and foreclosures ensued.

The CREA report says the current period of high home prices is a natural part of the demand-driven market cycle.

"The Canadian housing market is now widely thought to be at, or very near, the top of a cycle, and the ratio of home prices to incomes is currently high," said its chief economist Gregory Klump.

The CREA report said the income-to-house price ratio will soon revert to its long-term average as it always does as part of a normal housing market cycle.

"History suggests, however, that it will not do so by means of a significant correction in home prices. The more likely scenario is that home prices will stabilize, giving incomes a chance to catch up again," Klump said.

Unlike their U.S. counterparts, Canadian mortgage holders have borrowed conservatively and are accelerating mortgage repayment, which will give options to those who may face financial difficulties when they renew their mortgage at a higher rate, the report said.

A report on housing affordability by CIBC World Markets on Tuesday suggested about 1.5 million, or 17 per cent, of houses in Canada, are currently overvalued.

CIBC senior economist Benjamin estimated that, on average, Canadian home prices are now around 14 per cent over their "fair" value, adding there would likely be a five to ten per cent price correction in the next few years.

"This pace of appreciation has been quicker than justified by housing market fundamentals such as income, rent or demographic changes," Tal wrote in the report.

"While the booming housing market is starting to come back to earth, the fact that prices are overvalued today does not necessarily mean that they will crash tomorrow," he added.

Tal's report found the average price of a house has risen by nearly 23 per cent since reaching recent cyclical lows in January 2009. And the erosion of affordability — as interest rates rise faster than prices drop — could cause problems for the most vulnerable segment of the population, he said.

CIBC's new home ownership affordability index found that home ownership is increasingly difficult for families with household incomes less than $50,000, who on average spend close to 60 per cent of their gross income on mortgage payments, property taxes and electricity costs.

The report found that Canadians today spend 15.6 per cent of their average gross personal income on mortgage payments, which is about the same as 10 years ago. When adding in electricity bills and property taxes, it rises to about 22 per cent of gross income.

Tal predicted that in the second quarter of the year, affordability will continue to deteriorate, even as prices level off. He added that home prices will fall in the second half of the year and in to 2011, which will improve affordability.

"I don't think affordability will be a major issue over the next two years. I think it will be relatively stable with interest rates rising, but prices actually going down a little bit," he said.