Notes slowing global economic growth
The Bank of Canada increased the target for its trend-setting overnight lending rate on July 20, 2010, raising it by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.75 per cent. The increase follows on the heels of an equal interest rate increase in June 2010, when it was raised for the first time since 2007. The Bank rate now stands at one per cent.
In its most recent interest rate announcement, the Bank marked down its outlook for economic growth globally, emphasizing the uneven economic recovery in the U.S., and weakening prospects for European economic growth.
In the Bank’s view, Canada’s domestic economy is evolving largely as expected in recent months, but trimmed its forecast for economic growth this year and next by 0.2 per cent to 3.5 per cent in 2010 and 2.9 per cent in 2011. While the Bank raised its forecast for Canadian economic to 2.2 per cent in 2012, it nonetheless left the easing trend for growth intact.
The Bank indicated, “[this] revision reflects a slightly weaker profile for global economic growth and more modest consumption growth in Canada. The Bank anticipates that business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth.
Where the domestic recovery had previously been led by housing and consumer spending it is now guided more by government stimulus.”
The Bank also reaffirmed its view that housing activity and household expenditures was pulled forward into the first half of 2010, causing to soften in the second half. It also recognized that business investment has been weaker than it previously expected, “held back by global uncertainties.” The Bank anticipates “that business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth” over its forecast horizon.
As of July 20th, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate of 5.79 per cent was down 0.06 per cent from one year earlier, and 0.2 per cent below where it stood when Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on June 1, 2010. However, it is 0.3 percentage points higher than it was at the beginning of the year.
The Bank has signaled to financial markets that it is leaving its options wide open as to whether it will raise interest rates further when it makes its next rate announcement on September 8th.
“As it did with its previous announcement in June, the Bank messaged financial markets that further interest rate increases are not pre-ordained,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “The strength of recent economic indicators have prompted the Bank to raise interest rates, but the Bank has signaled that may keep rates on hold should the economic recovery begin to show signs of loosing steam.”
The Bank’s July MPR will be published on July 22. The Bank will make its next scheduled rate announcement on September 8th.
http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm
(CREA 07/20/2010)
OTTAWA – June 2, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has lowered its forecast for home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations. The revision reflects a weaker than expected start to the year in British Columbia, and recent developments that pulled forward the timing as to when sales are expected to ease in other provinces.
CREA’s previous national forecast was heavily influenced by British Columbia and Ontario forecast trends, and this remains the case in the revised forecast. While sales activity is unfolding as expected in Ontario, the decline in affordability in British Columbia impacted sales in the province during the first quarter.
Additionally, changes to mortgage regulations announced in February are expected to marginally impact activity. The changes prompted some homebuyers to finance their home purchase before the new regulations took effect in April, which pulled forward a number of sales that would have otherwise taken place at a later date.
April also saw the Bank of Canada drop its conditional commitment to keep interest rates on hold until at least July, opening the door to an interest rate hike before then. Indeed, on June 1st, the Bank announced its decision to raise its trendsetting overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to a ½ a per cent, and indicated it expects the rate of growth to slow for consumer spending.
“Interest rates are expected to rise slowly and at a measured pace during a new era of government spending restraint, so home financing will remain within reach for many homebuyers,” said CREA President Georges Pahud.
CREA had previously forecasted sales would remain at elevated levels through the first half of 2010 before easing in the second half of the year and over 2011. While the forecasted trend for activity has not changed in CREA’s revised forecast, it has been pulled forward, with the fourth quarter of 2009 marking the peak of national activity. This has had the effect of lowering the forecast for national activity over the rest of the year and in 2011.
National activity is forecast to reach 490,600 units in 2010, up 5.5 per cent from 2009 and the second highest annual level on record. Lower expected activity in British Columbia accounts for more than half of the downward revision in national sales activity. Annual activity in Alberta was also revised downward due to weaker than expected activity in the first quarter. Ontario is still expected to see a record number of sales in 2010, but by a smaller margin than previously forecast.
Interest rate increases will contribute to weaker national sales activity in 2011. Transactions via the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards are forecast to decline 8.5 per cent to 448,700 units in 2011. Although this is a similar percentage decline compared to CREA’s previous forecast (-7.1 per cent), the downward revision in national activity levels for 2010 means that the forecast level for sales activity in 2011 has also been revised downward.
The national average home price is forecast to climb 1.6 per cent in 2010, reaching a record $325,400, with average price gains forecast in all provinces. The downward revision from the previously forecast 5.4 per cent gain reflects lower forecast sales activity in British Columbia, where most transactions are priced well above the national average.
All provinces are forecast to post modest average price gains in 2011, except British Columbia and Ontario. The forecast decline in activity is sharpest in these two provinces, with higher-priced transactions weakening most. Average prices are forecast to sag in these two provinces in the second half of 2010 before stabilizing next year. As the Ontario and British Columbia shares of national activity edge lower, there will be fewer higher priced properties in the calculation of the national average price. The national average price is forecast to decline by 2.2 per cent in 2011 as a result.
“With interest rates soon expected to rise, Canada is widely believed to be entering a typical demand-driven downturn due to recent prices increases and rising interest rates,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “A downward trend in national sales activity combined with an increase in listings will result in a more balanced market.”
“In keeping with the return of a balanced housing market and typical demand-driven housing market cycle dynamics, prices will remain stable,” he said. “Canada’s solid mortgage market trends, conservative lending practices, and prudent borrowing by homebuyers means that Canada will avoid the massive realignment in housing supply and demand being experienced in the United States. Accordingly, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing price correction.”
(CREA 06/02/10)
For the first time since 2007, the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by one quarter of one percentage point to 0.5 per cent on June 1, 2010. The Bank rate was raised to 0.75 per cent and the deposit rate was unchanged at 0.25 per cent, thereby re-establishing the normal operating band of 50 basis points.
The Bank had been keeping its benchmark interest rate at the lowest possible level for more than a year to stimulate the fragile economic recovery.
The Bank noted that while that global economic recovery is well under way, it is unfolding unevenly on a global basis. It characterized the ongoing imbalances as “strong momentum in emerging market economies,” and “some consolidation of the recovery in… industrialized economies,” counterbalanced by the “possibility of renewed weakness in Europe.”
The Bank keyed in on current volatility in the European markets as the largest downside risk to global economic growth saying, “Recent tensions in Europe are likely to result in higher borrowing costs and more rapid tightening of fiscal policy in some countries.”
The Bank noted that spillover into Canada from events in Europe has resulted in a modest decline in commodity prices and some tightening in financial conditions.
The Bank downplayed slightly stronger than expected inflation and economic growth saying, “CPI inflation has been in line with the Bank’s April projections,” and “activity in Canada is unfolding largely as expected.” It also played up the idea that consumer spending would soon subside: “Going forward, household spending is expected to decelerate to a pace more consistent with income growth.”
As of June 1st, the advertised five-year conventional mortgage rate stood at 5.99 per cent. This is down 0.66 per cent from one year earlier, but stands 0.14 per cent above where it stood when the Bank made its previous interest rate announcement on April 20, 2010. It is also one half of a percentage point above where it stood at the beginning of the year.
“The Bank left its options open as to whether it will raise rates again when it makes its next interest rate announcement on July 20th,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “I expect it will raise rates by another quarter of a percentage point at that time, but will take a pause at some point later this year, especially since interest rates in the U.S. are likely on hold until next year.”
“Even though they are on the rise, mortgage rates will still be at low levels that are housing market friendly, with home financing remaining within reach for many homebuyers,” he added.
The Bank will make its next scheduled announcement on July 20th.
http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/interest_rate_trends.htm
(CREA 06/01/2010)
The process of selling in Canada is effectively controlled by Multiple Listing Service. Over 80% of sales transactions take place though this medium. The CREA, Canadian Real Estate Association, owns the MLS® trademark, has proprietary ownership of the REALTOR trademark. CREA sets up the rules for using their trade mark and only the members of Canadian Real Estate Association, primarily Real Estate Sales persons, brokers and other professional affiliates can use the trade mark. Under MLS, the members of the service, share the information among each other to expedite the process of selling. The access to the important data is not open to the public.
The process of selling a property through the services of MLS can be divided in 5 different stages.
This includes things like, collecting the pertinent information about the property, such as measurements, legal description, zoning, liens if any, Title, Insurance, property taxes and converting this to the format that the board accepts and then processing it through the MLS system. The important information about the property is then made available to the consumers by CREA’s on its website however, it does not carry the names of the owner, his contact information or any thing that would help the consumer to contact the seller directly. He must contact the broker representing the seller to get more information and to see the property.
This includes all those steps the broker takes to expose the property to the prospective buyers to bring in the sale. This includes, but is not limited to, activities like, advertising, in papers, sign on the property, holding open houses, face to face meetings with prospective buyers, sending flyers, advertising on the net, canvassing, etc. etc.
Encompasses answering questions and queries of consumers, brokers, lawyers, mortgage broker, building inspectors, appraisers, providing answering desk, making appointment and keeping a log of the activities to facilitate the sale and seeing it through the closing.
This is the most important phase for the sale of the property. This is where the knowledge, expertise and experience of the agent shines and can have a huge impact on the final outcome. It includes representing the Seller in negotiations with the buyer / buyer’s agent. The goal here is to promote and protect the interests’ of the seller and maximize his returns from the sale of the property.
During any of the stages stated here above, there may be situation where the seller needs the advice concerning any issue effecting the sale of the property.
So if one wants to use the services of MLS, he has to contact a member of the CREA and hire him to process the listing of their house/property through CREA’s MLS system. The standard agreement does not allow, except few basic amendments, any changes to the listing agreement. CREA’s approach is take the MLS agreement as it is or leave it, no exceptions.
Under the current MLS rules and regulations, the consumer must keep the services of the broker through all stages of selling and the broker must stay involved. There is no provision for the consumer to hire the broker just for posting the property on MLS, servicing the listing, marketing or have the broker represent him in negotiations. Currently it is all or none for the consumer.
This is where the government feels that CREA has a monopoly. Government wants that the consumer should be able to hire only those services that the consumer needs rather than being forced to take the full bundle. Government wants to see more competition for the benefit of the consumer. Competition should help to bring the cost of selling down for the consumer as he will be able to choose only the services that he needs.
In the long run, it should be a win-win scenario for the consumer and the people in the real estate brokerage industry. Brokers will get more freedom and will be able to custom tailor the services according to the needs of the consumer. It will bring down the selling costs for the consumer and will also lower the costs of doing business for the brokerages. Currently to comply with CREA’s rules and regulations, brokerages must have the infrastructure to see the sale through all the stages of the selling process. The restrictions imposed by MLS are unproductive and ultimately the consumer pays.
Only time will tell who will benefit more, the consumer or the brokerages.
The RE/MAX Upper End 2010 Report, highlighting sales and trends in 13 major Canadian centres and five sub-markets, found that improved economic performance, increased personal wealth, immigration and foreign investment all contributed to a serious upswing in sales. Virtually all areas experienced double and triple-digit increases between January and March of this year over 2009 figures for the same period. Nine out of the 13 markets examined (69 per cent) shattered existing records – setting new all-time highs for first quarter activity in the upper end.
“Real estate continues to resonate with purchasers at every price point,” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “With the top end of the market shifting into high gear, every segment of the residential real estate sector is now operating in tandem. Despite the upward momentum, there are still deals to be had – especially at the higher price points—a fact that is motivating buyers to act.”
While comparisons are being made to one of the worst first quarters on record – it’s important to note that the bounce back in many areas – including Greater Vancouver, Victoria, Winnipeg, London-St. Thomas, Greater Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal (Island), Halifax-Dartmouth, and St. John’s -- exceeds record levels reported in years past. Leading in terms of percentage increase in sales is Kelowna (700 per cent), Montreal (Island) (300 per cent), Victoria (275 per cent), Greater Toronto (263 per cent), Greater Vancouver (184 per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (169 per cent), Edmonton (164 per cent), London-St. Thomas (125 per cent), and Ottawa (121 per cent).
“Recovery in the upper end has been nothing short of remarkable,” says Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada. “This segment of the market was hardest hit when the recession took hold—yet its comeback has been fast and furious. There is no doubt that mindset has changed and confidence has returned. One only has to look at the percentage increases to see the current upward trajectory.”
Economic performance has been a major driver, boosting consumer confidence levels across the board. The tangibility of bricks and mortar has also played a role in record activity – a development that began in 2008 as affluent purchasers reduced their exposure to equities and shifted their earnings into real estate holdings. Recovering stock markets – and portfolios – in the months ahead will further contribute to housing market activity.
“Luxury sales as a percentage of the market have been steadily increasing in recent years – with the exception of 2009,” says Sylvain Dansereau, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Quebec. “With the return to economic growth, it’s expected that the number of high net worth individuals will begin to rebound, following two years of consecutive decline. This will continue to help prop up Canada’s luxury market going forward.”
Immigration and foreign investment have also had an impact on the luxury segment – and in some markets, seriously bolstered sales. Middle Eastern buyers, Mainland China investors, and Europeans—to a lesser extent—are represented in virtually every market across the country. Canada’s sound banking system, political stability, and strong dollar are attracting foreign investment – and that is spilling over into high end residential real estate.
Most active in 2010 were business executives, entrepreneurs, and professionals. Location was first and foremost among upper-end buyers, followed by a preference for newer homes or those that are turn-key (completely renovated). With the exception of Toronto, buyers could be relatively particular and take their time in making decisions as balanced conditions characterized markets across the board. Given adequate supply, prices are likely to hold steady or experience modest increases in the majority of markets in 2010.
Canada’s most expensive luxury markets are shared equally among East and West, with Greater Vancouver topping the entry-level price point for high-end homes at $2 million, followed by $1.5 million in Greater Toronto and Montreal (Island). Upper-end value markets were most abundant in Atlantic Canada and smaller centres in Ontario, where luxury home prices started at $400,000 in St. John’s, $450,000 in Halifax-Dartmouth, $500,000 in London St. Thomas, and $750,000 in Ottawa and Hamilton-Burlington. Winnipeg and Edmonton represented good value in the West at $500,000 and $850,000 respectively.
Greater Vancouver holds the title for the most expensive home sold through MLS in the first quarter. The property—an 11,600 sq. ft. home on ¾ of an acre on the city’s Westside, changed hands for $10.06 million. Other noteworthy sales include: $7.25 million in the Greater Toronto suburb of Mississauga, $6.25 million in Toronto’s central core, $5.75 million in Calgary, $5.5 million in Montreal (Island), and $5.3 million in White Rock/South Surrey. The priciest MLS listings could be found in West Vancouver ($29.9 million), Greater Toronto ($23 million in Bridle Path), Vancouver Westside’s Shaughnessy area ($22 million) and Victoria ($19 million).
After a buoyant, if geographically uneven start to the year, Canada’s housing market is poised to moderate as 2010 unfolds, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey. The post-recession real estate recovery, which began in earnest in the third quarter of 2009, continued unabated in the first quarter of the year. While year-over-year unit sales volumes increased and prices appreciated across the country, a look back at the two year period that spanned the recession’s beginning and end shows that some cities have experienced a rollercoaster effect of declining and rising prices, while at the other extreme, home prices in some regions never stopped appreciating.
“The first quarter of 2010 continued where 2009 left off, with more Canadians enthusiastically participating in a rejuvenated residential real estate market,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “One of the earliest sectors of the economy to return to growth after the difficult recessionary period, the housing sector has been a prime beneficiary of low borrowing costs and improving consumer confidence.”
House prices were up across all key housing types surveyed by Royal LePage, with the average price of a detached bungalow in Canada rising almost 11 per cent to $329,209 in the first quarter year-over-year, while standard two-storey homes rose 10.3 per cent to $365,141 and standard condominiums increased 10.9 per cent to $228,963.
While some analysts have described house price increases over the past 12 months as a national housing boom, an analysis of Royal LePage data from Q1 2008 through Q1 2010 shows three different patterns of house price trends in Canada’s major cities:
“National averages from our first quarter report are not particularly useful in painting a picture of the country’s neighbourhood real estate stories. House sale data from the past two year period shows tremendous variances in terms of how different cities reacted to the recession,” Soper said. “In Vancouver and Toronto, for instance, the dramatic unit sales fluctuations exhibit a significant degree of market irrationality: inordinately fearful when faced with poorer markets; and overly enthusiastic when the tables turned. Montreal is an example of a city where the market has been much more stable and homeowners there seem quite happy with the relatively slow pace of change.”
“Even in our most frenzied pockets of market activity, the inevitable rise in interest rates coupled with home price appreciation will rein in demand as affordability erodes. Expect house prices to continue to rise, but the rate of appreciation should ebb steadily, month by month, throughout the remainder of the year, as balance returns to the industry,” concluded Soper.
In Ontario, home prices rose across all key housing types in all of the markets surveyed by Royal LePage, with detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes in Toronto seeing some of the largest gains. Greater Toronto home prices rose an average of 10 to 13.3 per cent year-over-year, with detached bungalows reaching an average price of $459,107 in the first quarter. Ottawa price appreciation ranged from 8 to 11.1 per cent year-over-year, with standard two-storey homes averaging $346,833 in the first quarter.
See Royal LePage Spring 2010 House Price Survey (.PDF) »
OTTAWA, Ontario – February 8, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) learned today that the Competition Bureau filed a Notice of Application with the Competition Tribunal against CREA.
“CREA views the Commissioner’s decision as surprising and disappointing,” said Dale Ripplinger, President of CREA. “We do not agree with the Bureau’s position that certain CREA rules are anti-competitive, either as a matter of fact or as a matter of law. CREA’s rules allow for innovative business models and provide a broad range of choice for consumers.”
In good faith, CREA engaged in settlement negotiations with the Competition Bureau for several months in an effort to arrive at a consensual resolution. Unfortunately, the parties were unable to reach an agreement. This is very disappointing, since CREA has consistently indicated – right from the outset – that it has always been prepared to work with the Competition Bureau to revise its rules to clarify the way the rules operate.
Last week, CREA advised the Commissioner of Competition that CREA had made the business decision to move forward with rule changes to address the issues raised by the Bureau, whether or not a settlement with the Bureau could be reached.
“In making these clarifications on a proactive basis, CREA believes that it is fully addressing the Competition Bureau’s concerns, while ensuring the accuracy and quality of MLS® information that Canadians have come to trust and REALTOR® compliance with a code of ethics” said Ripplinger.
The Commissioner’s press release states that CREA’s rules restrict consumer choice and prevent innovative business models. That is simply false. CREA is disappointed that the Bureau would make this statement in view of the months of discussions about CREA’s rules and CREA’s consistent position that its rules are not intended to and do not restrict any business models.
The real estate industry in Canada is highly competitive and thrives on small businesses with independent agents, brokers and franchises conducting a wide variety of transactions every day. CREA currently has more than 98,000 members operating independently across the country to compete for consumer business, offering a wide array of services and pricing structures.
“CREA’s interest and that of its members is to ensure consumers have choice, that they are protected during one of the most significant transactions they will undertake, and that the integrity of the MLS® system is preserved for the benefit of REALTORS® and the Canadian public” added Ripplinger.
About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 98,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.
For more information, please contact:
Alyson Fair
613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
Email: afair@crea.ca
Ray Sapiano
613-237-7111 or 613-290-8902
Email: rsapiano@crea.ca
