Commercial Real Estate News Blog

OTTAWA – June 16th, 2010 – Statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that home sales activity and new listings in Canada declined in May.

Seasonally adjusted home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards declined nationally by 9.5 per cent in May from near-record level activity the previous month. While activity declined in more than 70 per cent of local markets, the lower national figure resulted largely from fewer sales in Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity was down 4.3 per cent in May from the same month last year. In a departure from the normal seasonal pattern, national activity levels in May were also down from April levels. This suggests that the combination of changes to mortgage regulations and rising mortgage rates pulled forward a number of sales into April that would have otherwise taken place at a later date.

“May was the first full month in which sales activity was affected by these changes,” said CREA President Georges Pahud. “An accompanying decline in new listings and housing starts means these changes are also affecting the supply side, which will keep the market balanced and Canadian home prices stable.”

The seasonally adjusted number of homes that were new listings on Canadian MLS® Systems in May 2010 declined by four per cent from the previous month. This marks the first monthly decline in new listings in eight months. New listings had been climbing sharply, rising from a four-year low last September to the second highest level ever last month.

The number of homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems at the end of May was up 5.4 per cent from levels at the same time last year, when the supply of homes for sale on the market had started declining.

The national average price of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems rose 8.5 per cent in May from a year ago. This is a smaller increase compared to those recorded over the past nine months.

“Supply and demand has become more balanced in a number of major markets,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “Homebuyers now have more choice and are likely be in less of a rush to purchase than they were recently, so the amount of time it takes to sell a home is expected to rise in the coming months.”

With last year’s string of downwardly skewed average price values having now mostly passed, year-over-year national average price comparisons are coming back into line with changes in the national weighted average price.

The weighted average price compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 8.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in May 2010. Similarly, the residential average price in Canada’s major markets was up 9.8 per cent year-over-year in May, while the weighted major market average price rose 10.7 per cent.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory stood at 5.3 months in May 2010. This is up from 4.8 months at the same time last year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, months of inventory stood at 6.1 months in May, the highest level since last April.

“The number of months of inventory may rise further in response to easing sales activity and a further rise in the number of active listings,” said Klump. “However, the number of newly listed homes will ultimately retreat in response to a more competitive sales and pricing environment in a number of local markets. The outlooks for the Canadian economy, employment, and mortgage market trends remain upbeat, so supply and demand will remain balanced on a national basis. Canada will avoid a U.S.-style home price correction.”

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 96,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at

http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/Media_May10rpt_e.pdf

OTTAWA – June 2, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has lowered its forecast for home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations. The revision reflects a weaker than expected start to the year in British Columbia, and recent developments that pulled forward the timing as to when sales are expected to ease in other provinces.

CREA’s previous national forecast was heavily influenced by British Columbia and Ontario forecast trends, and this remains the case in the revised forecast. While sales activity is unfolding as expected in Ontario, the decline in affordability in British Columbia impacted sales in the province during the first quarter.

Additionally, changes to mortgage regulations announced in February are expected to marginally impact activity. The changes prompted some homebuyers to finance their home purchase before the new regulations took effect in April, which pulled forward a number of sales that would have otherwise taken place at a later date.

April also saw the Bank of Canada drop its conditional commitment to keep interest rates on hold until at least July, opening the door to an interest rate hike before then. Indeed, on June 1st, the Bank announced its decision to raise its trendsetting overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to a ½ a per cent, and indicated it expects the rate of growth to slow for consumer spending.

“Interest rates are expected to rise slowly and at a measured pace during a new era of government spending restraint, so home financing will remain within reach for many homebuyers,” said CREA President Georges Pahud.

CREA had previously forecasted sales would remain at elevated levels through the first half of 2010 before easing in the second half of the year and over 2011. While the forecasted trend for activity has not changed in CREA’s revised forecast, it has been pulled forward, with the fourth quarter of 2009 marking the peak of national activity. This has had the effect of lowering the forecast for national activity over the rest of the year and in 2011.

National activity is forecast to reach 490,600 units in 2010, up 5.5 per cent from 2009 and the second highest annual level on record. Lower expected activity in British Columbia accounts for more than half of the downward revision in national sales activity. Annual activity in Alberta was also revised downward due to weaker than expected activity in the first quarter. Ontario is still expected to see a record number of sales in 2010, but by a smaller margin than previously forecast.

Interest rate increases will contribute to weaker national sales activity in 2011. Transactions via the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards are forecast to decline 8.5 per cent to 448,700 units in 2011. Although this is a similar percentage decline compared to CREA’s previous forecast (-7.1 per cent), the downward revision in national activity levels for 2010 means that the forecast level for sales activity in 2011 has also been revised downward.

The national average home price is forecast to climb 1.6 per cent in 2010, reaching a record $325,400, with average price gains forecast in all provinces. The downward revision from the previously forecast 5.4 per cent gain reflects lower forecast sales activity in British Columbia, where most transactions are priced well above the national average.

All provinces are forecast to post modest average price gains in 2011, except British Columbia and Ontario. The forecast decline in activity is sharpest in these two provinces, with higher-priced transactions weakening most. Average prices are forecast to sag in these two provinces in the second half of 2010 before stabilizing next year. As the Ontario and British Columbia shares of national activity edge lower, there will be fewer higher priced properties in the calculation of the national average price. The national average price is forecast to decline by 2.2 per cent in 2011 as a result.

“With interest rates soon expected to rise, Canada is widely believed to be entering a typical demand-driven downturn due to recent prices increases and rising interest rates,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “A downward trend in national sales activity combined with an increase in listings will result in a more balanced market.”

“In keeping with the return of a balanced housing market and typical demand-driven housing market cycle dynamics, prices will remain stable,” he said. “Canada’s solid mortgage market trends, conservative lending practices, and prudent borrowing by homebuyers means that Canada will avoid the massive realignment in housing supply and demand being experienced in the United States. Accordingly, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing price correction.”

(CREA 06/02/10)

(OTTAWA – May 17, 2010) Home sales activity in Canada came up short of the record for the month of April and new listings continued to climb, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards numbered 52,042 units in April 2010. This is less than one per cent short of the record for national sales activity during the month of April, which was set in 2007. Compared to April 2009, national activity was up 20 per cent.

Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity slipped 2.6 per cent from the previous month, and now stands 6.8 per cent below the peak reached in December 2009. More than half of the decline in activity over the first four months of 2010 resulted from fewer sales in British Columbia, while activity in Ontario and Quebec remains at or near record levels.

“The easing trend in national sales activity masks a rising trend in a number of major markets,” said CREA President Georges Pahud. “Real estate is local, so buyers and sellers should engage the services of a REALTOR® for knowledge about housing market trends in their market.”

Some 99,901 homes were newly listed for sale on Canadian MLS® Systems in April 2010, surpassing the previous record for the month of April set in 2008 by six-tenths of one per cent. A total of 236,397 residential properties were listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems at the end of April 2010, down 1.9 per cent from levels one year earlier.

As for the national average price of homes sold via Canadian MLS® Systems, that figure rose 12.2 per cent over this time last year. This is a smaller increase compared to those recorded over the past eight months. Bucking the national trend, price gains continue to increase in a number of major markets in Alberta, Ontario and Quebec.

With last year’s string of downwardly skewed average price values having now mostly passed, and with activity in British Columbia’s lower mainland having settled down, year-over-year national average price comparisons are coming back into line with changes in the national weighted average price.

The weighted average price compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 11.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in April 2010. Similarly, the residential average price in Canada’s major markets climbed 12.9 per cent year-over-year in April, while the weighted major market average price rose 12.1 per cent.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory stood at 4.5 months in April 2010. This is down from levels one year ago (5.6 months) and April 2008 (4.7 months), but up compared to April levels from 2004 through 2007. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, months of inventory stood at 5.3 months in April, the highest level since last May.

“Next month will mark the passage of one year since the national average price rebounded from the recessionary trough to return to the pre-recession peak, so the rise in the national average price is expected to be more subdued next month, ” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “The national average price could potentially be skewed higher over the next couple of months if buyers of higher priced homes in Ontario and British Columbia move their purchase decision forward to beat the introduction of the HST in July.”
PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 96,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/media_apr10rpt.pdf

Propertyshop.ca

Lawyers are the latest group trying to grab a piece of the $8-billion in annual residential property commissions, as the real estate industry deals with the impact of changing regulations. A group of seven Ontario lawyers behind propertyshop.ca,which allows consumers to list their property on the site for a fee ranging from 1% to 1.5%, believe the landscape has changed dramatically because consumers listing with them can now also gain access to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for a nominal fee. Those fees contrast with an average 5% that consumers pay to real estate agents to handle a listing from beginning to end.

"There's been a lot of chatter among lawyers [about competing]," says Michael Forcier, one of the lawyers behind the site owned by Lawyers Web Property Shop Ltd. "It has been talked about for years, but the problem has been the MLS."

Changes now occurring in the industry are opening up access to the MLS rapidly. In February, the Commissioner of Competition filed an application with the Competition Tribunal saying the Canadian Real Estate Association's restrictions on the MLS -- responsible for about 90% of sales nationwide--were anti-competitive. CREA responded by making changes to its bylaws to allow more a la carte services, including letting consumers conduct a transaction with the agent providing only the listing.

Mr. Forcier's group is now working with an agent with the Ottawa Real Estate Board who, for $109, will take the listings his group gets and upload them to the national site mls.caor realtor.ca."You don't want to talk to a realtor who will charge you 5%, you don't want to deal with the FSBOs [for-sale-by-owner sites] who are not licensed, so you deal with a lawyer. We've been involved with deals since Confederation. We understand deals and we know how to negotiate deals," Mr. Forcier said.

Consumers using his site would get access to a lawyer from the beginning to the end of a transaction and would get legal advice on areas such as disclosure rules and zoning bylaws.

Ontario lawyers are allowed to trade real estate under the Real Estate and Business Brokers Act.

"We do private deals all the time. This just means we have to organize it a bit," said Mr. Forcier, who has managed only about 20 to 25 listings on his site, which is linked to 61 lawyers operating in Ontario. British Columbia lawyers are organizing a similar system in their province.

Lawrence Dale, the lawyer who at one point operated the discount broker Realtysellers Ltd., said legal fees have been dropping for years. "The legal profession has been hammered," he said. "Twenty years ago they used to get a 1% tariff, so on a $500,000 deal they'd get $5,000. Today they'd be lucky to get $500."

Mr. Dale said the legal fees on a property deal became a commoditized service much like what he says is happening to real estate. "No matter [what lawyer] you used, you knew you would get in and out of the market, so you said, 'Give me the cheap one.' Lawyers are looking for other opportunities," he said.

John Andrew, director of the executive seminars on corporate and investment real estate at Queen's University, said increased competition was to be expected in the wake of the competition commissioner's application and the changes by CREA itself.

"We are in an environment of tremendous uncertainty, but it's clear to all of the players that CREA is in the phase of relaxing its rules," Mr. Andrew said. "We are going to see even more of these websites springing up, all kinds of alternatives models.

"A lot of them will fall by the wayside. It almost doesn't matter what happens at the [tribunal] hearing. I think the writing is on the wall."

Source: financialpost.com